To be a little contrarian, doesn’t this make the case for buying and holding hard assets? Rather than fearing a drop in equity risk assets (commodities, consumer staples etc.), when the music stops in trading these and pure financial assets (cash, bonds, CDS, mortgage reits), doesn’t that mean there will be a stampede to buy and hold the former?
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# 8 November 2009 at 7:12 AM
Robert said:
Shows why this whole site is generally worse than a complete waste of time. Inappropriate pessimism can be contagious and would have caused you to miss rally off the bottom in March. Some people just refuse to change their minds and keep going out looking to make things up to support their pessimistic views – no matter what.
Some of them are even bashing hoping to get in on what they missed. They are wringing their hands at having missed the hugh move.
When things are really crappy is when you should be buying as long as you hold the view that things will get better. What’s the point of buying when things are great ? No room for improvement.
Don’t believe all the “world isn’t coming to an end” nonsense on this site. Things will get and be just fine once again and right quick enough at that.
Another occasional reader who focuses only on my macro outlook and nothing else. If you were a regular reader you’d know that I was very bullish about 2009, called the March 8th bottom to the day and went long before each earnings season. In all, you would have been in the market prior to each of its major moves while sitting out nearly all of the sideways to down movement. I sat out the entire 2008 bear and am up double digits (though underperforming the market YTD) in 2009. Am I concerned about the long-term? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean you can’t make money inbetween.
How do you justify your accusation of my being a permabear when I have in fact been bullish before every major up move during the bull market? I would note my 2009 investment predictions (which were quite bullish), my March 8th bottom call and every subsequent buy call before earnings season. Granted, I turned bearish again the day the market recently peaked (http://pragcap.com/you-gotta-know-when-to-fold-em), but that is a pure risk management play.
I emphasize risk management here, not buy and hold or whatever approach I am sure you’re using that has resulted in sub-par performance. I would delete your comment if it didn’t serve as a great example of the ignorance of the investment community.
It’s understandable. I tend to focus on my macro outlook with the writing here. After all, how many times a week can I give a micro market outlook? It’s not like I am a day trader….
I am pretty negative about what the government is doing and the potential impacts on the economy going forward. It comes out in the macro outlooks which overwhelms the site. But mistaking that for my micro outlook is just flat out wrong.
I should add – I have never implied the world is coming to an end and was in fact one of the few bears last year who said the Great Depression 2 was a ridiculous theory….
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# 8 November 2009 at 8:21 AM
Otter said:
TPC – please do not feel the need to defend the introduction of various points of view – I find your site VERY balanced and ALWAYS make it mandatory reading EACH day to keep me from any one sided view. Thanks for your great work.
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# 8 November 2009 at 5:43 PM
Sherman McCoy said:
I think Robert’s real issue is you tend to highlight your directional view, which has been wrong for as long as I have been skimming this site, and the morsels of info you toss out are from fringe players that have awful market calls. Hussman Funds? Underperforming buy/hold for at least 3 years. Bob Prechter? A guy who gains fame every time his broken clock aligns with the market(about once a decade). Richard Russell? With all due respect, the guy’s fricking 90. He made an awful bullish call in Barrons in ‘08 that none of his readers have ever recovered from.
If you’re going to wear your market calls on your sleeve, they ought to be right, or you might consider changing them. Otherwise you start to sound like a reverse Abbie Cohen. It might also be nice to air an opposing view, once in a while, since none of us have a monopoly on the truth – new 52 week high in the Dow today with the Trannies a chip shot away….
Allow for the fact you may actually be wrong, once in a while.
I’ll give you an hour to respond with factual evidence showing how my “market calls” have been wrong. I went long into earnings and sold at SP 1100. How is that wrong?
No response will result in a ban. Sorry, but you’ve been trolling this site long enough….
As for the “fringe players” – I assume you have access to the goldman, JP morgan and Morgan Stanley insights that I routinely point to here. They are “fringe players”? Ha.
To be a little contrarian, doesn’t this make the case for buying and holding hard assets? Rather than fearing a drop in equity risk assets (commodities, consumer staples etc.), when the music stops in trading these and pure financial assets (cash, bonds, CDS, mortgage reits), doesn’t that mean there will be a stampede to buy and hold the former?
Shows why this whole site is generally worse than a complete waste of time. Inappropriate pessimism can be contagious and would have caused you to miss rally off the bottom in March. Some people just refuse to change their minds and keep going out looking to make things up to support their pessimistic views – no matter what.
Some of them are even bashing hoping to get in on what they missed. They are wringing their hands at having missed the hugh move.
When things are really crappy is when you should be buying as long as you hold the view that things will get better. What’s the point of buying when things are great ? No room for improvement.
Don’t believe all the “world isn’t coming to an end” nonsense on this site. Things will get and be just fine once again and right quick enough at that.
TPC Reply:
November 8th, 2009 at 9:46 AM
Another occasional reader who focuses only on my macro outlook and nothing else. If you were a regular reader you’d know that I was very bullish about 2009, called the March 8th bottom to the day and went long before each earnings season. In all, you would have been in the market prior to each of its major moves while sitting out nearly all of the sideways to down movement. I sat out the entire 2008 bear and am up double digits (though underperforming the market YTD) in 2009. Am I concerned about the long-term? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean you can’t make money inbetween.
How do you justify your accusation of my being a permabear when I have in fact been bullish before every major up move during the bull market? I would note my 2009 investment predictions (which were quite bullish), my March 8th bottom call and every subsequent buy call before earnings season. Granted, I turned bearish again the day the market recently peaked (http://pragcap.com/you-gotta-know-when-to-fold-em), but that is a pure risk management play.
A few links for your review:
http://pragcap.com/how-are-we-doing
http://pragcap.com/tpc-earnings-report
http://pragcap.com/revisiting-our-2009-investment-predictions
I emphasize risk management here, not buy and hold or whatever approach I am sure you’re using that has resulted in sub-par performance. I would delete your comment if it didn’t serve as a great example of the ignorance of the investment community.
SS Reply:
November 8th, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Clearly a new reader. Ignore these idiots.
TPC Reply:
November 8th, 2009 at 12:15 PM
It’s understandable. I tend to focus on my macro outlook with the writing here. After all, how many times a week can I give a micro market outlook? It’s not like I am a day trader….
I am pretty negative about what the government is doing and the potential impacts on the economy going forward. It comes out in the macro outlooks which overwhelms the site. But mistaking that for my micro outlook is just flat out wrong.
TPC Reply:
November 8th, 2009 at 9:50 AM
I should add – I have never implied the world is coming to an end and was in fact one of the few bears last year who said the Great Depression 2 was a ridiculous theory….
TPC – please do not feel the need to defend the introduction of various points of view – I find your site VERY balanced and ALWAYS make it mandatory reading EACH day to keep me from any one sided view. Thanks for your great work.
I think Robert’s real issue is you tend to highlight your directional view, which has been wrong for as long as I have been skimming this site, and the morsels of info you toss out are from fringe players that have awful market calls. Hussman Funds? Underperforming buy/hold for at least 3 years. Bob Prechter? A guy who gains fame every time his broken clock aligns with the market(about once a decade). Richard Russell? With all due respect, the guy’s fricking 90. He made an awful bullish call in Barrons in ‘08 that none of his readers have ever recovered from.
If you’re going to wear your market calls on your sleeve, they ought to be right, or you might consider changing them. Otherwise you start to sound like a reverse Abbie Cohen. It might also be nice to air an opposing view, once in a while, since none of us have a monopoly on the truth – new 52 week high in the Dow today with the Trannies a chip shot away….
Allow for the fact you may actually be wrong, once in a while.
TPC Reply:
November 9th, 2009 at 9:16 AM
I’ll give you an hour to respond with factual evidence showing how my “market calls” have been wrong. I went long into earnings and sold at SP 1100. How is that wrong?
No response will result in a ban. Sorry, but you’ve been trolling this site long enough….
TPC Reply:
November 9th, 2009 at 9:19 AM
As for the “fringe players” – I assume you have access to the goldman, JP morgan and Morgan Stanley insights that I routinely point to here. They are “fringe players”? Ha.
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