FRONT RUNNING THE JOBS NUMBER
It was quite odd to see such a robust rally heading into what is generally one of the most volatile days of the month. Investors are clearly expecting a positive number. Analysts are expecting a decline of 175K jobs which is a drastic improvement over last months 263K loss. Of course, if you recall last month we saw a 2% decline heading into the payrolls data and then a flat trading day on the day of the release. Analysts at JP Morgan are expecting a mixed bag with better than expected losses, but a higher than expected unemployment rate:
“the contraction in the labor market is expected to moderate in October as we look for a decrease in payrolls of 140,000, an improvement from the 263,000 jobs shed in October. The unemployment rate is expected to move up again, and we look for the rate to hit the psychologically important
10.0% level; we now anticipate that the unemployment rate will peak at 10.2% early next year.”
If today’s action is any indicator JP Morgan is likely spot on and the good news is already priced into the market.
I read some job-related number/indicator that cannot be manipulated:
http://insidetech.monster.com/news/articles/6359-h-1b-visa-job-applications-filed-at-lowest-number-since-2003?utm_source=nlet&utm_content=it_c1_20091105_HBVI
“Out of the 65,000 H-1B visa applications that are up for grabs, only 46,700 applications have been submitted for 2010, according to the government. The 20,000 visa cap available for foreign students studying in the U.S. who have at least a master’s degree was met, though applications are still being accepted.
It wasn’t long ago when tech companies begged the government to increase the H-1B visa cap, but that no longer is the case due to a sluggish global economy.”
Do you know what the all insightful Goldie forecasts for tomorrow?
Pretty amazing that H1B quota wasn’t filled. During tech boom it was 3 times higher and it still wasn’t enough.
I was also surprised by the rally in front of the unemployement number. Usually there is a sell off. Why would people be expecting a better number I don’t know. First time claims in October where still pretty bad.