GDP Weighted PMI Consistent With Expanding Global Economy

This morning’s global PMI readings were a mixed bag on the whole, but showed mild improvement.  Notable improvements came from the EMU, USA and China.

The EMU is clearly still in recession, but showing signs of modest improvement as the PMI moves from 45.8 to 46.2.  This is still a contraction, but we’re seeing some stabilization if nothing else.  The USA’s Markit PMI improved to 52.8 from the October reading of 51.  And China showed some mild improvement to 50.5 – its highest reading in 13 months.

The globally weighted GDP index (updated monthly at Orcam Investment Research) moved up to 50.3 from 49.4.  This is the first expansion reading since May of this year.

(Source: Orcam Investment Research)

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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Comments

  1. Chicago PMI – down & below 50 for two months.
    CFNAI – down & below zero for many months.
    ISM PMI – down and below 50.
    INDPRO – down for over a year on a YoY change rate basis.
    Conference Board coincident to lagging ratio – down for months.

    Japan – down.

    There was a false bounce up in early 2008 after the recession had already started in the US.

    Complacency, quite high in spite of all the noise about the cliff.

    I’m not bullish (d’oh)