The Baltic Dry Index is an excellent indicator of global economic strength.   It is an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron and grain.

The index has fallen precipitously as the global economy weakened throughout 2008.  But the index has fallen 85% and stabilized near its historical average.

Although one recession is not a good measure, it is interesting to notice that the index stabilized throughout 2002 after a 40% fall and rebounded sharply in 2003 as the global economy strengthened.  The Baltic Dry Index might just be one of the first signs that the worst is behind us.