The final PMI readings for December are in and it points to a modest improvement in global economic conditions. Notable improvements came from the USA which registered at 54, India at 54.7 and China at 51.5. Notable weakness remains in Europe which is clearly still experiencing a very difficult economic environment. The Eurozone PMI came in at just 46.1. The recession in Europe persists.
Here are some of the more notable data points:
- EMU: 46.1
- USA: 54
- China: 51.5
- India: 54.7
- Japan: 45
- Russia: 50
- Brazil: 51.1
(Source: Orcam Financial Group)
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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Cullen,
Thank you!
Is it a real upswing or a head fake?
Markets roared their approval today.
Markets soared due to relief we avoided sequestration with severe cuts. But what if this avoidance only lasts for 2 months, until we hit the debt ceiling? Isn’t the market taking a very short-term view here? If 2013 GDP now grows at only about 1% (2.3 minus the 1.3% hit) that can’t be good for profits. Would any bulls out there please explain how & why this deal is so bullish?
Why do you use Markit US PMI Final instead of ISM Manufacturing which came in at 50.7?
The Markit PMI has a bit better correlation with the economy. At least according to Markit.
http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/dec/US_manufacturing_PMIs_12_12_03.pdf
But since ISM hasn’t issued anything saying otherwise I use the Markit data primarily now….Plus, it keeps it consistent with the other PMI readings which are all HSBC/Markit.
The interesting thing will be when European PMI also turns up and the doom mongers finally blink and realise the world really is mending.
People have to make theirown mind up,but IMO Europe’s hit the bottom so the PMI is just a case of confirmation that will be coming.