GOLDMAN’S CURRENT ACTIVITY INDICATOR: GROWTH CONTINUES

Goldman Sachs has developed an indicator that I’ve previously discussed here.  It’s essentially an attempt to create a better real-time indication of global economic growth than the global PMI’s and many of the other indicators investors often reference.    Although it hasn’t been in use for very long it’s tracked fairly well thus far.   The latest update points to continued global growth and economic growth that is stronger than some of the negative PMI reports we’ve been seeing abroad (via Goldman Sachs):

“We now have sufficient CAI coverage to aggregate the country-level series into a PPP-weighted Global CAI Aggregate. Like the output of our Global PMI-Implied Growth Model, the Global CAI is an approximation of the current sequential rate of global growth. Our Global CAI is currently tracking at 4.1%, nearly a full percentage point higher than our PMI-based estimate and also above our and consensus forecasts. This divergence may reflect two things: (i) our Asia CAI data is currently only available through March and (ii) European national business surveys have significantly outperformed PMIs recently.”

Source: Goldman Sachs

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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Comments

  1. Hmm, it’s only a few days ago I saw another post about the plummet in the Citi’s Global Economic Surprise Index. I was wondering how does that index correlate to this one and which one is more “reliable”?

  2. I think this index should be trusted 100% just like any other prediction that has come out of Goldman lately …