GOLDMAN’S TOP 10 IMPORTANT SHORT POSITIONS
From Goldman’s latest hedge fund tracker comes their list of most important short positions held by hedge funds (via Market Folly):
“This tracks short exposure of hedge funds as an equal-weighted basket that “consists of 50 S&P 500 constituents with the highest total dollar value of short interest outstanding.” It can be accessed on Bloomberg via < GSTHVISP >.
Goldman emphasizes that this list is not based on 13F holdings (because hedge funds are not required to disclose shorts). They also note that it’s not a basket of stocks most held short.
Goldman Sachs Very Important Short Positions For Hedge Funds
Stock, value of short interest (in $ billions)
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $2.9
2. Exxon Mobil (XOM): 2.8
3. Intel (INTC): 2.6
4. International Business Machines (IBM): 2.4
5. Amazon.com (AMZN): 2.4
6. AT&T (T): 2.3
7. Chevron (CVX): 2.1
8. Verizon (VZ): 1.8
9. Duke Energy (DUK): 1.7
10. Walt Disney (DIS): 1.5″
Source: Goldman Sachs
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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22 Comments
Those seem to be mostly major dividend stocks, with the exception of Amazon. Perhaps the hedge funds are betting that the massive tax increase on dividend income will go into effect next year, and this will drive down the prices of those stocks.
But wouldn’t that also lead to an increase in dividends relative to the stock price? Or do you think companies will completely suspend dividends in favor of other options?
I don’t think the companies will change dividends. Recipients will pay more in taxes, that’s all. What matters is what the shorters think. They probably think investors will flee dividend stocks when the fraction going to Uncle Sam rises from 15% to 40%+, and as a result the herd will pile into hot growth stocks.
Fine by me. Some of the high dividend paying names in that list have great a great fundamental outlook. I’m happy to grab a few extra basis points of dividend yield if and when it becomes available.
this info really says nothing, actually i would buy many of those names…and short GS
how about you just short everything cullen and make a few million more, i know your net short on everything right now, global-macro trader like yourself must be. Long TZA.
Short Intel, Chevron, ATT, Exxon?Large stable companieswith dividends? Even if the market goes down they will not go down as much as some of the high fliers betas like LULU or CMG. I don’t understand the thesis behind this position.
I’d be bying Intel and Chevron and even ATT ( which I hate a as a customer) for the dividends sake.
This bet only makes sense if there is an expectation of interest rates rising, which will not happen for another 2 years.
Until then, there is no alternative to divivends no matter how much they are taxed.
If anyone thinks Goldman let this information out for any reason other than they are about to take the other side of the trade, then that person needs to have his or her head examined. This is the way the world works, folks. People talk their books. They deceive. Somebody keep score, please. It’s almost certain that these stocks, in aggregate, will rise, since Goldman says to short them. Never, ever trust this kind of information.
Do they say it is an outright short stock position (that would not make much sense since they would have to pony up those dividends)or that is some long-term puts bet which would make a perfect sense since those puts are probably very cheap and this divident-paying bunch will go down with everything else anyway?
“Say hello to my little friend”… (said the 10yr to the SPX)
@VII, equities are on sale today, very cheap, low P/E’s, div yields higher than the 10yrT, can’t understand why folks are selling them today, can you??
whatttt…..no short on the ‘barbaric relic’……gold?
oohhh, thats right…….its not barbaric now that the ECB has made it ‘a condition’ that periphery nations must commit their gold reserves as a condition of aid release.
and, i guess since most national central banks are buying gold…….it lends it some credance.
the 40 year debt/credit supercycle will be resolved thru paper, all right, in the final reset………but its the debt reset part that makes gold not a relic….for now.
Boatman, long time. I thought you’d gone and left us on your boat….You probably wish you had….
oh, i go off on the boat on a regular basis, but not for good…….and still appreciate the wrinkles of the financial world you set out here…….i stop by alot really……i usually try to curb my bearish views out of deference to you.
i just still have a dim view of human nature, politics and their ability to paper over this exponential debt cycle without alot of losers and pain.
hope your fish hunting has been good…….we’ve been getting dinner anyway.
mahalo!
I haven’t even been out once this season. The weather’s a bit erratic this time of year in San Diego and makes for rough waters. I’ll get out there a bunch between now and November though….Hoping for warm waters and pelagics this year….
being a florida boy, in cali i’m thinking yollowtail n yellow fin, swordfish…maybe striped marlin????….for pelagics.
u reckon the US treasury market tanks [pension funds n others mandated to AAA only] when moody’s n fitch catch up to the last aug SnP US downgrade?
I am not very bullish on Tsy’s and haven’t been for most of this year. I hold a core position, but I am not adding to that or trading around it as I might if I were bullish. So I’d prefer to see higher yields before diving in. So I’d lean more to the bearish tsy’s side at the moment.
Yes, yellowtail, tuna, bonito. I don’t do the marlin and shark hunting thing. I guess I am still a novice in that regard. One day the small fish will bore me. Baby steps.
well the ‘tail n the tuna are great beating…….at least the bonita are fun…….boy, if u can every run a small bonita back out deep live[quickly] with him wired-up w/hooks……….
bet back at the big boys he’s a hell of a croaker……n you don’t have far to go to deep………that’d be a bigger step.
i think we are seeing the top of the bond market for 15 years minimum[some i respect are saying 30]…..1.62 on the ten yr. today.
Yeah, I can be in 1,000 feet of water in 30 minutes. Not like the flats out there. Then again, the flats are better fishing in general. Plus, we fish the kelp beds out here which is a totally different style of fishing and can make for a messier day if you’re not careful….
is it really illegal to fish off the beach there???
No, you can fish off the beach (though probably only in certain spots – like not near surfers of course). But you better have a license and be up to snuff on the multitude of rules that prohibit taking certain fish/size. Your head would explode if you saw our fishing regulations book. 200 pages of detail that no one on the planet could remember.
ooh.i forgot the Basel Committee for Bank Supervision is currently meeting to raise gold to a tier 1 bank asset for the forthcoming basel III rules.
some barbarous relic.