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THE HALLOWEEN INDICATOR

29 October 2010 by Cullen Roche 2 Comments

The following is courtesy of Chart of the day.  This is the beginning of a very strong seasonal period:

The stock market is now entering what has historically been the strongest half of the year. Today’s chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. While there are some noteworthy periods during which the Halloween indicator didn’t produce (e.g. during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the dot-com bust of 2000-01, and the financial meltdown of 2007-2009), the overall out performance is compelling.

Notes:
- Where’s the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • JKD

    So today must be the day where all the bears take profit on their shorts from May 1st?

    10/29/2010 at 1:35 PM
  • Greater Fool

    True, but September and October are also traditionally the weakest months and look how they’ve done. I think all the conventional wisdom is out the window, with everything seeming to trade on government policy response only.

    10/29/2010 at 2:14 PM