Comments on: HAS RICHARD RUSSELL TURNED BULLISH?

By: Geoff

Geoff — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 20:53:21 +0000

Russel’s BiG Picture Bearish based on what he says is a rally from stocks that weren’t under valued? 9th March 2009 weren’t we at 15 year lows on the Dow and S&P and 30 year lows on stock in major emerging markets (except China which was already running up from start of the year)? I was under the impression that we were very under valued, especially after that huge drop in Oct ’08 not to mention the lower levels in March ’09.

What about our last huge Big Bull run up from 2001 to Oct 2007? Didn’t that come from the Tech Bubble Burst where even at the lowest many stocks were still very much over bought?

Actually contrary to this article the majority are not looking to a continuation major Bull Run from here, but are looking to that double dip as evidenced from the reactions here. No one it seems from March this year to now are prepared to say we are under way Bull cycle.

Except for Buffet who must be in deep manure having just spent $34Billion on the Burlington purchase betting on an up cycle … $8 Billion of it borrowed money.

By: Henry

Henry — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:42:27 +0000

I remember back when Dow was above 7500, Mark Hulbert wrote an article saying that it wouln’t break below….Little that he knows, it broke below…Keep in mind that
Meredith call for a double bottom…and market ignored…anyone check the outflow of funds??….

By: James

James — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:15:04 +0000

I don’t understand what you are trying to convey.

By: JTodd

JTodd — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:07:13 +0000

Keep an eye on the IWM, it was down 2.5% today and has confirmed lower highs and lows. The daily S&P has four swings of negative divergence with the MACD and the RSI this is a rare event.

By: James

James — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:39:34 +0000

The U.S. indices are topping right now technically.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:30:55 +0000

Rob, it sounds like an option writing strategy would work well for you. Have you ever looked in it?

By: Rob

Rob — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:25:56 +0000

I too have missed the big losses, but missing too much of the big run up since March has been killing me.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:53:06 +0000

Exactly. It’s not missing the big gains that kills most investors, but suffering through the large losses. This is one factor that readers often overlook. I have been skewered by readers at Seeking Alpha who point out that I missed much of the rally up (which is true), but I also missed out on all of last year’s losses (actually posting double digit gains). My gains this year, though underperforming, still notch a high water mark. I attribute this entirely to good risk management.

By: Alchemisteve

Alchemisteve — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:50:16 +0000

No one can consistently time the markets, i.e., call tops and bottoms with anything approaching precision. Most who have tried have gotten fried. The important thing is to be on the right side of the market most of the time and even more importantly, never suffer a large loss. Studies have shown that large losses are never made up. RR appears to do this as well as anyone.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:09:10 +0000

I couldnt agree more….