The NY Times had a must read article this weekend about a potential economic bottom.  Thus far, I think it’s safe to say that there are no signs of a bottom yet:

A sign that consumption has hit bottom may come when the savings rate begins to flatten. Spending should then rebound as pent-up demand gives way. Car sales, for instance, have fallen to levels last seen in 1981, when the population of the United States was about three-quarters of what it is today. Many families are deferring car purchases and making do with what they have. Eventually, however, they will have to replace their aging vehicles.

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In a study of economic cycles, Edward E. Leamer, an economist at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California at Los Angeles, found that auto sales and home building tended to lead recoveries.

An increase in international trade would be another early indicator that consumer spending here and abroad has hit the floor and begun to rebound.

After growing at an average of 7 percent a year for most of this decade, global trade was little changed from March to September last year, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Many large economies including the United States, Japan and China have reported a sharp drop in exports and imports in recent months. There was more bad news on Friday, when the Commerce Department reported that exports from and imports to the United States fell by about 12 percent in January.

“Seeing global trade pick up would be a very positive sign,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at Harvard.

Tobias Levkovich, chief United States equity strategist at Citigroup, has another indicator for spotting when we have hit bottom: When we stop behaving like children in the backseat of the car asking their parents, “Are we there yet?”