Nordstrom reported worse than expected earnings after the bell.  The company is an economic bellwether and important indicator of the health of the consumer.  The line that stands out in their earnings report follows:

“Nordstrom is planning for 2010 based on recent business trends but with continuing caution about the economic environment and its impact on the customer. Although there was meaningful improvement in the latter half of 2009 that could continue in the first half of 2010, the company believes growth could moderate in the second half of 2010 as it overlaps with the improving trends from the prior year. (emphasis added)

The warning signs for the second half of 2010 are beginning to mount.  The end of government stimulus, potential rate increases, the end of housing stimulus, a surging equity market, very high H2 earnings estimates and a potentially slowing consumer could all converge to create a messy second half of 2010.


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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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  • mario

    how come Nordstom is the only retailer to say this “growth could moderate in the second half of 2010 as it overlaps with the improving trends from the prior year” This is so elementary, yet all the other guys refuse to mention it. It’s not because they are dumb, it because they are deceptive.

  • http://ghlatter@eastlink.ca gordon h latter

    Sir: The goverment,financial advisors have been cooking the inflation numbers & other financial information for years.They have made money almost worthless as a result. If they have not destroyed the economy they will before too many moons, if they do not alter their misguided methods. There are financial,laws that will come into play,and have already begun to show their presence and could cause a complete failure of the world financial system.they basing their decisions on false and unsound principles and theories,to their and the world at large’