IBD DOWNGRADES MARKET OUTLOOK
Investors Business Daily has had a nice track record during the 2008 downturn and the 2009 rally. Investors who followed their Big Picture outlook sat out most of the 2008 losses and jumped into the rally shortly after it began. They remained bullish throughout most of 2009 and only turned cautious (but not bearish) later in the year.
As of Friday, IBD has officially changed their market outlook to “Market in Correction”. Friday marked the 5th major distribution day in the last month and volume has been substantial during the recent downturn. The market has also moved through the 50 day moving average. On a more micro basis IBD is growing increasingly concerned about specific leadership action. Many of the best performing names have begun to underperform on a relative basis. All of this adds up to a “market in correction” – IBD’s most cautious investment outlook.
Source: IBD
In 2008 and 2009, I was trading bonds. I just purchased SKF this month. I am rereading “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” now.
just watch out TS, that boy plunger didn’t do so good at the end, the selling started two weeks ago, all on the offer under the masks of upgrades and short squeezing in all them big names that kept us going, if you check charts, most are over sold 10-20%, I wouldn’t jump to hit bids so quick here, unless you’ve joined the plunge team when those sphoos traded 11.40+, yes I do think that we’re about to witness “price discovery to the down side”, but this MKT has no problem correcting up 30 S&P handles, cause of IDB I had to cover the a big part of those that dropped more then ten points for the week, thank you IDB, too meny fake number coming out this week, check for pulse, if there’s no bounce, have your seat-belt on, WE ARE GOLDEN…
good stuff, like I said earlier, something feels different this time…
I only gave you a 1 star becuase I could not give negatives
just skip my comments and I’ll reciprocate…
Just giving you the heads up that its IBD not IDB and TS if you want to short financials look into FAZ as it is levered 3 times opposed to ony 2 for the skf.
It’s about time IBD changed their status. The recent actions in the stock market looks quite bearish to me. Investors still have the opportunity to exit with little damage here. Again, I completely agree with IBD – a huge correction is upon us.
Lets look at the CHART for the S&P 500 and you will see a similar pattern developing under the 50 day Moving Average.That lasted for about 2 weeks.
By all means stay cautious but its too early to predict ARMAGEDDON.
MOnday, 2/1/10 should see accelleration to the dwnside… This thing is set up for a good long liquidation (about time). All the typical indications are there, not to mention if you look at a chart of the VIX it has formed a large bull flag… (BEarish to Equities). Probabilites for a rush to the exit..Correction or Top? I lean to the Correction crowd… The Talking heads will be beating the drums driving the “buy the dip” crowd into the net. I’m in the Bear Mkt Rally camp but a Bear Mkt Rally is after all a “mini” bull mkt within a Secular Bear. The current high price print does not look like a typical top, there really wasn’t any price rejection. Makes me “suspect” that after a good wash out there will be another push to take the shorts out and potentially make a higher high and then potentially the door will get slammed on the bulls. Just a scenario, not a prediction. In trading as you know you just go with the flow.
From a political perspective the ppolitico’s will throw everything at the economy/market to keep the ball in the air but they are running out of bullets. The real risk, IMHO is right after the November election, if some other event doesn’t intervene first.
Good Trading.