INTERMODAL RAIL VOLUME HITS 2010 HIGH
The discrepancy between rail traffic and many other leading indicators continued this week as rail volumes continue to log healthy figures. There is a very real tug-of-war going on between certain parts of the economy at present. Rail traffic was slow to recover from the recession – one has to wonder if it isn’t lagging again. Via the AAR:
“The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail intermodal volume on U.S. railroads for the week ending Aug. 14, 2010 was the highest of 2010, with 233,767 total trailers and containers, up 20.8 percent from the same week in 2009, but down 1.4 percent compared with 2008. Weekly container volume, a subset of intermodal, was the highest on record up 22.4 percent compared with the same week in 2009, and up 6.4 percent with the same week in 2008. Trailer volume, the other subset of intermodal, rose 12.3 percent last week compared with the same week in 2009, but fell 31 percent compared with 2008.In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.
Carload traffic continued moderate weekly gains, with U.S. railroads originating 295,948 carloads for the week, up 7.1 percent compared with the same week in 2009, but down 11.3 percent from the same week in 2008.
Sixteen of the 19 carload commodity groups increased from the comparable week in 2009. Those posting the most significant increases were metallic ores, up 65.4 percent; metals and metal products, up 38.8 percent; and farm products excluding grain, up 37.6 percent. Two commodity groups, farm products excluding grain and metallic ores, also posted increases over 2008.”
Intermodal rail traffic is the earliest indicator of a recoveryV or someone’s cooking the books. My aluminum territory rep contact tells me that the slope of slow growth is increasing.
I look at trends like increased rail traffic, increased manufacturing, and the robust IT sector not as signs of a recovery, but a transformation in the economy. We are going back to an economy where something tangable is actually produced instead building booms in Las Vegas and stock and real estate speculation. Rail traffic is a sign that the exurbs are contracting, people are relocating back into the cities where there are manufacturing jobs. Rail is just a more efficient way to ship bulk items.
I don’t see it in these numbers.
Total Total Mining Construc- Manufac-
and Total private goods and tion turing
month producing logging
Monthly data, seasonally adjusted
2009
July…….. 130,294 107,778 18,375 687 5,949 11,739
August…… 130,082 107,563 18,245 678 5,885 11,682
September… 129,857 107,377 18,124 676 5,814 11,634
October….. 129,633 107,115 17,993 669 5,747 11,577
November…. 129,697 107,190 17,960 676 5,732 11,552
December…. 129,588 107,107 17,906 676 5,696 11,534
2010
January….. 129,602 107,123 17,876 684 5,636 11,556
February…. 129,641 107,185 17,848 691 5,585 11,572
March……. 129,849 107,343 17,905 702 5,612 11,591
April……. 130,162 107,584 17,972 709 5,634 11,629
May……… 130,594 107,635 17,993 720 5,605 11,668
June(p)….. 130,373 107,666 17,990 725 5,584 11,681
July(p)….. 130,242 107,737 18,023 733 5,573 11,717sector of the BLS should reflect this
I have a hard time seeing rail transport as being a lagging indicator – unemployment claims are bigger laggards (census anybody?).
As far as the Philly Fed survey goes, I have no idea.
Increased intermodal railfreight = more unemployed truck drivers .