INTERMODAL RAIL TRAFFIC HITS BEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR
Despite a 11% decline versus last year, we continue to see some signs of life in the weekly and monthly total rail traffic. Intermodal traffic reached its highly weekly volume for 2009 while carloads remained depressed and reported a year over year decline of 17.2%. Signs of stability are certainly apparent and the recent uptick could prove to be a trend in rail data as comps become very easy when compared to Q4 of last year. All in all, this is a relatively good sign for the economy going forward despite the marginal short-term gains.
WASHINGTON, D.C., Oct. 15, 2009 — The Association of American Railroads today reported that for the week ending Oct. 10, 2009, rail traffic remains down – originating 273,429 carloads, down 17.2 percent compared with the same week in 2008. Regionally, carloads were down 15.4 percent in the West and 19.7 percent in the East.
Intermodal traffic, while down 11 percent from the same week last year, showed slight signs of improvement this week. U.S. railroads reported originating 208,941 trailers or containers for 2009 – the highest weekly intermodal volume for 2009. In the year over year comparison, however, container volume fell 4.6 percent and trailer volume dropped 34.9 percent.
Seventeen of the 19 carload freight commodity groups were down from the same week last year. However, nonmetallic minerals were up 6 percent and grain mill products were up 1.4 percent. Declines in commodity groups ranged from 3.1 percent for grain to 70.4 percent for metallic ores.
For the first 40 weeks of 2009, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,655,334 carloads, down 18.1 percent from 2008; 7,556,240 trailers or containers, down 16.6 percent, and total volume of an estimated 1.14 trillion ton-miles, down 17.2 percent. Total volume on U.S. railroads for the week ending October 10 was estimated at 30.8 billion ton-miles, off 16.1 percent from the same week last year.
So less then 24 hours ago you released and commented about the railtime indicators report and how weak it was. Now, here you are 24 hours later commenting on how good this report is.
No wonder nobody listens to you people anymore.
I hope you don’t invest based on these macro trends. If you do I am sure your portfolio is about as insignificant as your comment.
The railtime report is a monthly report and my negative view of the macro landscape is unchanged. This week’s report is actually a marginal positive for the macro picture though it has absolutely no impact on my actual investments.
Any regular reader understands that you can be incredibly bearish and maintain bullish market positions at the same time.
I love how every buy and hold investors come out of their cave after a rally and starts trashing people who they accuse of being permabears. Although my macro view has been bearish I’d be willing to bet that I’ve made more money than most investors during this rally and that your portfolio is not at an all-time high (as mine is). My calls are all on the site and verifiable. Where are yours? You don’t even comment with a name so how can anyone even begin to take you seriously?
Another troll. Do you make all of your financial decisions based on what you read on anonymous blogs?
year over year comparisons getting easier by the month
“The Association of American Railroads today reported that for the week ending Oct. 10, 2009, rail traffic remains down – originating 273,429 carloads, down 17.2 percent compared with the same week in 2008″ — this is still trending down.
Prag: Which one is better to use? the actual carload numbers or the intermodal? What is that anyways and how does it compare to the average carloads?
it looks there was some spike last year in the same time period, so maybe its due seasonality…
TPC,
You are getting very defensive regarding comments from your readers as of late.
I have to admit that I too saw a rail report which was negative a few days ago and the intermodal report was surprising positive. But that is normal everyday there is both good and bad news.
As a regular reader, I know that you try to maintain a balance of opinions – bullish, bearish and middle of the road, as well as positive and negative news reports.
I would like to make a suggestion that you preface articles on your site with brief statement that puts each one in context. For example, “David Rosenberg. Consistently bearish, with good macro analysis, but I wouldn’t recommend trading off his analysis.” Not all your reader are familiar with Doug Kaas or David Tice. The context helps.
Also, I am curious just how your portfolio compares to a MSCI World Index or S&P500 Index since October 2007 or January 1, 2008. Clearly at an all time high as you state but higher than the benchmark by how much?
Apologies Rob. I just notice a lot of bulls coming here and trying to pigeon hole me as a permabear or imply such. Also, there are two repeat offenders whose comments I have tracked. They are nothing more than trolls so I don’t give them too much respect.
Your idea is a good one. I forget often that a lot of investors aren’t familiar with everything that I refer to on a daily or weekly basis so it can be difficult to maintain perspective.
As for my portfolio: 42% in 06, 26% in 07, 19% in 08 and 11% in 09. All audited and verifiable, but I used very different strategies from the macro approach discussed here at TPC. 123% cumulative vs. -10 for the S&P 500.
I have been testing a macro portfolio for the site which is up 6% over the last month since I started it. It is kind of in beta mode, but I hope to reveal it soon.
Thanks for the suggestions.
Sorry Maybe I should have said TPC. Can you point me in the right direction as to my previous post? I’d appreciate it.
Uformula,
Sorry. Your comment got lost in the shuffle. Apologies. I prefer to use Intermodal because it is not as highly skewed by commodities, but they both tell the same story really.
Hi there,
Is my reading of the chart incorrect or wouldn’t you expect the YOY values to creep back up towards 0% change? Take this month’s -15% on last year, which was -5% on the year before and you’ve still got a month where it’s 20% worse than 09/2007. If you don’t see that chart go positive YOY in the next few months it surely implies that things are getting really bad?
Cheers
Mike
Hi Mike,
The fact that readings are still coming in negative is certainly a sign of just how weak things are. In the last few recoveries, the year over year data went positive well before the stock market bottomed. The comps have become very easy into Q4 and still no big bump higher….
For anyone:
These are 2 different reports
Weekly Rails
Monthly Rails
Surprise ,Surprise –one can be a little positive while the other is not!
Basic Reading skills—No wonder the US should spend more on education.
Or ponder this – when the facts change I change my mind. What sir, do you do?