Comments on: INTERMODAL RAIL VOLUME FALLS 24%

By: Jay (market folly)

Jay (market folly) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:58:41 +0000

great idea to post this up. I watch this but usually on a monthly basis as it definitely is a great economic indicator that becomes extremely useful in a time when people are trying to predict when the economy will recover. well, idiots out there can just stop predicting and starting watching the actual traffic!

Now that I think about it, its a bit odd that no one really posts this up frequently do they? Sounds like another TPC niche!

Jay

By: JTodd

JTodd — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:04:33 +0000

Well thank you for sharing the data! Yet another reason why this site is a great source of information.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:43:15 +0000

No one reports on this vfsv. It is probably one of the most important economic releases that we get every week. In my opinion, just as important as the initial jobless claims, but no one reports this. Railfax releases the data each thursday morning and the AAR releases a detailed report each Thursday at varying times.

I have no idea why the MSM doesn’t report these figures. I had to compile the data myself to create annual, monthly and weekly charts because no one else does it….Confounding really….

By: vfsv

vfsv — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:35:19 +0000

I infer this was released during market hours? Do you know off-hand what time? (Not that there was so much as a downward blip in the market after ~10am…)

By: Nick

Nick — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:18:04 +0000

Decreased rail traffic is probably related to decreased consumer spending. When consumers aren’t buying. Then there isn’t as much need as before to transport things and commodities by railway. And with consumer spending making up 70% of the US economy, this doesn’t bode well for the expected economic recovery in the second half of this year.

Hoping that the already heavily indebted consumers will go on another borrowing and shopping spree simply doesn’t make sense. Consumer debt is already close to all time record high. Consumers simply can’t borrow and spend anymore without making their debts completely unmanageable and defaulting on them.

If there is going to be growth in the US economy. Then it will have to come from something other than consumer borrowing and spending. Such as producing more stuff and exporting it to other countries. But such growth is unlikely to happen at the present time. Because there are no international buyers who are willing and able buy a lot more exports from USA.

Perhaps some companies can stay profitable for a while by taking advantage of government stimulus programs in Asia, USA, and elsewhere. Or by speculating in financial markets. Or cutting their costs and firing their employees. But such profitability is unstable and likely won’t last. There is a limit to how much money governments can borrow and spend. And firing employees to increase profits hurts the very consumers that the economy depends on.