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IS IT A V-SHAPED RECOVERY?

4 February 2010 by TPC 4 Comments

Monday’s very strong reading in the ISM manufacturing data has many market pundits beating their chests over the v-shaped recovery in the U.S. economy.  Many of these pundits (most of whom completely missed the collapse) remain delusional.  By almost any metric of the real economy this is anything but a v-shaped recovery.  Not only is the stock market still 28% below its all-time high (no v there), but the data from the real economy still shows that the majority of Americans confront a very tough environment.  The following four charts from the St. Louis Fed succinctly tell the story:

Industrial Production – No V here:

v1 IS IT A V SHAPED RECOVERY?

Real income – No V here:

v2 IS IT A V SHAPED RECOVERY?

Employment - No V here:

v3 IS IT A V SHAPED RECOVERY?

Real retail sales – No V here:

v4 IS IT A V SHAPED RECOVERY?

So, is this a v-shaped recovery?   Only if you’re a banker:

DB1 IS IT A V SHAPED RECOVERY?

Source: DB, St. Louis Fed

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4 Comments »

  • AWF said:

    Don’t confuse us with the FACTS!

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    # 4 February 2010 at 10:16 AM
  • TCA said:

    Great graphs :-)

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    # 4 February 2010 at 10:45 AM
  • van said:

    as Bear Bryant used to say, “Bingo! That’s a’goodie!”

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    # 4 February 2010 at 1:58 PM
  • dlr said:

    What’s their data set? Are these ‘post world war II’ business cycles? Or does it include earlier periods (like the great depression)?

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    # 5 February 2010 at 6:11 PM