The 2003 bull market began with a rip snorting bull run that was nearly identical to the 40% rally we have just experienced in 2009 (though a bit longer in duration).  Curiously, the VIX also suffered a massive 60%+ decline from its 2002 peak.  The total decline equaled 63% in 2003.  Thus far, the VIX has fallen 68% from its 2008 high while the market has rallied the identical amount in 2003.   But the rally seems to have stalled a bit in the last few weeks as the VIX decline slows to a trickle and the summer doldrums set-in.  I think it’s safe to say that the easy money has been made in this bull run and that the gains going forward will be difficult to come by.  Following the initial 40% climb in 2003 the S&P 500 gained just 24% total over the following 4 years.   Does this mean the current rally is over?  Not necessarily, but it certainly means that the risk/reward dynamic of this market has changed for the worse.

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