JEFF SAUT: WE COULD RALLY HERE
In his latest strategy note Jeff Saut points out the overwhelming evidence that points to further downside in the long-term, however, he also says we have reached an extreme in the short-term. Saut believes we could rally from here, however, he appears to remain quite bearish in the longer-term:
“Since the “flash crash” low of May 6, 2010, we have had a Dow Theory “sell signal” (5-20-10), a sell-signal from my proprietary intermediate trading indicator (the first since December 2007), the monthly stochastic-indicator has turned negative, a downside violation of the 12-month moving average has occurred, most indices have broken below spread triple-bottoms in the charts, and last week we got a “death cross” when the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 200-DMA. All of this suggests that a cautious stance on stocks is warranted. Indeed, of all the vehicles I monitor, only the Yen, Gold, Silver, and Fixed Income are higher for the month of June, the 2Q10, and year-to-date. That said, such extreme downside readings typically imply stocks have been too compressed on a short-term basis and consequently a rally may be in order.”
Source: Raymond James
While the above analysis is correct (Technicals/Tactics)
J,Saut gives NO forecast on when the LOW’s will occur?
Or a possible Price Target?
Like a chicken he does not want to stick his neck out–
Your humble correspondent AWF has “NO FEAR”
Several price Targets on the S&P500 suggest 875 based on “measured move”
AWF forecast 961-976 as Short-Term Low this AUGUST 2010.
AWF forecast 841-856 as Long-Term LOW in MAY 2011
Saut is an idiot pundit who makes numerous and contradictory predictions hoping one would stick. Just more noise from a fool.
He’s got the same stance as Doug Kass.
I must be paying too much attention to CNBC. The interviews within a 1/2 hour before the opening bell either had floor traders declaring we are near a bottom or money managers who were outright bulls stating we’ve seen the lows.
It’s truly amazing the disconnect between WS and main street. Stocks require fundamentals for a healthy advance and fundamentals are deteriorating at an increasing rate. WS won’t be satisfied until it destroys every last dollar that main street holds.
Dead cats bounce.
We really haven’t had a crossover although it is very close. You have to use the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA to be precise and they have not crossed over as of today’s close. Regardless, it looks like it will crossover soon but the market is extremely oversold and a rally back to the moving averages on the SPX is in order. Then I would back up the truck and load up with Ultra Short ETF’s.
WOW! Jeff looks like he can mark his opinion to market with the best of them!!!
Market goes down, Jeff is bearish. Market goes up, short-term of course, Jeff is bullish!, short-term of course!
Wow! Great work if you can get it, marking your opinion to market!
I would like to do this for a living!
Anyone? Anyone?