JIM ROGERS: A CURRENCY CRISIS IS COMING, ECONOMY IS GETTING WORSE
10 December 2009 by Cullen Roche
7 Comments
Jim Rogers has an almost shockingly negative outlook on the economy. He not only believes we are overdue for a currency crisis, but also doesn’t see the economy recovering at all:
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Source: Tech Ticker
Now I want the Rosie naysayers to come out and say Jim Rogers doesn’t know anything. They are both on the same page. Neither is trying to be exact in timing, but both are saying soon. Soon can be 2 weeks or six months, but as we saw in 2008 if you are in the wrong place at that time you lose big.
I don’t think it’s that people think they know nothing, but timing is everything in the stock market. Rosie and Rogers will be right at some point. The market will decline and everyone will say “aha! Rosenberg and Rogers were right!” But if that doesn’t happen for another 1, 2 or 5 years and you lose a pile of money shorting the market then what does it really matter?
It’s like me making this prediction: the human race will end. Well, of course it will, but the WHEN is more important than the WHAT….Otherwise, predictions are worthless.
TPC, you’re making a faulty assumption that if they’re not long, they’re short. Not sure about Rosie, but the last I heard Mr. James B. Rogers Jr. did NOT have any shorts.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSP50971720090625
You can be on the sidelines and the only thing lost is opportunity.
I bet against Mr. Rogers a couple of times and lost. I have NO intention of ever taking the other side of his trades again!
You are absolutely correct.
Predicting a currency crisis (at least in the next 1-2 years) implies:
- us economics will decouple from global economics
- emerging markets will decouple from the USD, ie they need independent monetary policy (to control inflation, reduce commodity import prices etc.)
- us no longer provides geo-political or financial safe haven status; political instability in the US
I’ve heard Rogers say this numerous times, but he is a bit light on the rationale. It’s not obvious you can use history as a guide since the US is such a huge part of the global economy; it would be unprecedented if the US has a currency crisis and the world floats along effortlessly. Secular USD decline maybe; crisis? Mmmmm …
How much of their reputation is Jim Rogers and David Rosenberg putting on the line by making these huge calls like this? If Rogers is wrong, will people dismiss him, or will he forever have a voice and get the ability to provide his own soundbites?
Great interview. Talk to Rogers more often.