Comments on: JOHN PAULSON IS BETTING BIG ON REFLATION

By: Words from the (investment wise) May 24, 2009 | The Big Picture

Words from the (investment wise) May 24, 2009 | The Big Picture — Sun, 24 May 2009 18:19:52 +0000

[...] “The Pragmatic Capitalist smartly connects the dots: Stringing together the recent SEC filings of John Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund manager, makes one thing clear: he is betting big on the reflation trade. Paulson’s latest 13-F filing shows large positions in Anglogold, Kinross gold, Gold Fields, market vectors gold ETF and the S&P gold ETF. [...]

By: TPC

TPC — Fri, 22 May 2009 16:11:16 +0000

Hi Jay,

I've been a reader of your site for a while now. Great work.

I agree with your Paulson comment. It's actually impossible to gauge how some of these guys are diversified. So many of these big hedge funds have currency, futures, short and other positions that the public just can't track. But based on the small slice we can see he certainly seems to have an inflation tilt or at least a large hedge as you said.

Thanks for the comment. I'll see you around!

By: marketfolly

marketfolly — Fri, 22 May 2009 15:56:15 +0000

While I agree that Paulson is setting up for inflation and it makes sense.. his fund has also come out and said that they bought so much GLD as a hedge, because one of their fund share classes is denominated in gold, rather than US dollars, Euros, etc. You have to keep that in mind as part of the equation. But, since he's also bought so many miners, it's definitely clear he is wagering on inflation.

I'm Jay btw, pleased to make the acquaintance. I post up hedge fund tracking stuff on my blog (marketfolly) and have read your stuff but have never posted haha. Look forward to reading your insight.

By: Onlooker

Onlooker — Thu, 21 May 2009 00:28:23 +0000

Inflation, or more pointedly, the devaluation of our beloved dollar as we print our way of this historic debt hole we're digging. The history books will be interesting when looking back on this era. Methinks they won't treat us well. Kinda like the Romans.

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Wed, 20 May 2009 23:19:45 +0000

Agreed, only reason I may be a buyer of precious metals at this price point is that they are also a safety play, and with al l the bs going on, what else are you gonna buy.

By: TPC

TPC — Wed, 20 May 2009 20:16:21 +0000

Agreed. Im not sure how inflation picks up without a huge pick up in borrowing and spending. This run-up in commodities is beginning to look entirely season and courtesy of Chinese stockpiling. We could see a repeat of last year with big declines in Q3/Q4….

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Wed, 20 May 2009 20:05:24 +0000

Inflation/Deflation is the biggest question around imho. I am betting on big deflation and then obvious inflation two years out. REgardless, they are fucking this up so much that precious metals seems to be a solid play I think.