JP MORGAN: IGNORE ALL THE BAD NEWS COMING
Analyst’s at JP Morgan are telling equity investors to ignore the bad news coming in the next month as most of it is likely due to the bad weather across the United States. They are encouraging investors to maintain belief in their recently renewed bullish stance (see here) on the equity markets and not overreact to the downside:
“The next month’s worth of economic data will be full of weather and lunar new year distortions. This will create a lot of confusion, but should also persuade investors not to overreact to data noise. We fully agree, and choose to stay with our medium-term strategy of overweighting equities, commodities, and credit, and trading bonds from the short side. Positions changes should be based more on intrinsic value, taking assets from more nervous market participants, than on short-term market direction.”
Due to the coming likelihood of downside surprises in economic data JP Morgan is taking a longer-term outlook when it comes to the equity markets. They remain overweight equities, commodities and credit.
- Fixed income: Take advantage of the rally to reset shorts in US 2s. Sell Agencies against Treasuries.
- Equities: Stay long, focusing on small caps and cyclical sectors. Euro area underperformance is unlikely to be reversed.
- Credit: Overweight HY loans versus bonds in CDS indices as their spread is cheap versus the much better recovery rate on loans.
- FX: There is a near-term bias for EUR to reach the low $1.30′s.
- Commodities: We turn medium-term bullish on oil. WTI is expected to rise to US$90 by year-end.
Source: JP Morgan
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lunar new year!!! that sounds like something out of The Onion!
These guys generally have pretty sound reasoning, but that is just flat out hilarious….
In other words, since we at JPM, along with GS, do the majority of the volume in equities (via SPY and IWM) and oil, we suggest you tag along since you will likely be run over by us any way. Maybe the banks are becoming more helpful to Main Street?
Edna,
JP also manipulates the silver prices by it’s illegal short trades. I’m waiting for the FED’s to put a halt to this type trading, because JP does not have the silver on hand that it is shorting.
No insult intended Edna; but don’t hold your breath on that one.
The Feds are never going to reign in the silver shorts; their only complaint is that the market cannot do the same thing with gold to further mask the reality of their house of cards called the FED.
HAHAHA FED do anything right? No sorry, the government only messes things up. It tries to do the right thing, but has no clue what that is so it just makes things up.
The SEC no longer investigates clear cut cases of accounting fraud at companies, but instead goes after the whistle blowers. If you have faith in the government I have some land to sell you. The sign says US Army, Fort Knoxx but I swear all the gold inside comes with the property and its only $1 an acre!
The News was bad before the Weather, what makes you think its going to get any better. I am a small contractor just hanging on, if thing don’t get any better fast, I will be forced to close the doors.
Mike sorry to hear about your plight. I had small but successful company before 9/11 and held on month after month thinking just one more month and my clients will start spending again normally. All I accomplished was a near miss of bankruptcy court and five years paying off the debt.
I really wish you luck but I personally see no recovery in housing on the horizon.
All I see is toxic debt plugging up the system and lending constipation at all levels. So NO solution in sight.
I’m sorry to hear that as well Mike. It would have been nice if the Fed had allocated more capital to the consumer and less to the banks. It’s got me pretty infuriated.
Everyone has voted the current political system in, so no room for complaining. You made your bed America now sleep in it!
Its not the current system that was the issue. Its the system since 1913 honestly or at worst the 1930s. I am fine with unemployment but welfare is just abused in this country.
Example:
My old neighbor (2 doors down) had a daughter. She, at 21 got pregnent. It happens. The sperm donor leaves the picture and leaves the state. She goes on welfare. Fine. She then realizes she won’t have to work if she has more kids and will get more money. Last I heard she is the mother of 6 childern with 5 fathers (1 set of twins for those keeping score). Only one father pays child support.
My solution. When you get on welfare, we only support the child(ern) you currently have (and yes being pregnent counts). After that YOU have to figure out how to support any future mouths. And after 2 years we pay for daycare and you have to get a job. If you have another child and cannot support it, the state takes it and we’ll do it. But this discourages having more kids for more money.
But we are stuck now as a society. Less then 50% of the people in the country that are in the tax paying age ranges (I believe 18-65, but don’t quote me) actually pay in. So most people are getting handouts in some form or another. No one will want to give that up!
But like a sign I read once said, “dependence is slavery”. If you depend on the government to feed yourself, you are a slave to that government. And it is doubtful you will speak out against it or do anything to offend it.
Some cases you have next to no choice, I understand. I am just thankful I outright own my house and have pre-paid property taxes for this year. I have enough land to grow 90% of my food and have some stored away. I work in BC, Canada and a lot of workers have just gotten laid off in the trades (commerican work just died last week) I know about 80 journeymen sheetmetal guys who are out of work as of today over 4 different shops. And I went from 40 hours a week to having only 15 hours of planned work for next week. This is a slow time of year typically though but last year it never even blinked. So not paranoid, yet.
But anyways back to my main point. The current mess (Bush or Obama whoever you’re refering too) is just adding their minor little bit to it. But Americans have been dependent for a while now. I don’t believe in handouts, and have never taken one even when I was able to. I just lived on less.
Oh well. It will return soon enough I suppose. 100 weeks of unemployment is getting a bit crazy but sure we’ll see 200 in a few more years
Since its not getting better, just, “less bad”. If you stop listening to anything/everyone (even friends) its not that bad
looking at the Fed data (consumer credit, commercial loans) and comparing it to the 2003-2007 recovery period, I just don’t see how this is sustainable recovery. In 2003, consumer credit was going up – all we have now is Gov’t credit going up. Maybe Govt credit can push us up more but it just seems too risky – especially if Govt credit tails off.
I guess go long until you shouldn’t – shouldn’t being known after the fact when it’s too late…
fed graphs => http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/
maybe this is a deposit led recovery…corporate cash at record highs, banks with excess reserves at the fed, consumers with growing bank deposits and declining credit card balances. while i agree that consumption drives economic growth, it seems we are (smartly) firming up cash balances in order to generate the confidence to consume. slow and steady wins this recovery.
I’m not an economist and I know we need to shore up savings and balances, but what does that mean to the market? That seems to indicate a slow-down in growth because everyone is saving and not consuming.
slow and steady wins? to what? housing prices that are unsustainable so we crash again. We are definetly in a peroid of stagnation, that is, no real growth and negative returns when adjusting for inflation. Listen, this is a long bear market, has been since 2000. Once everyone is out of the market with no money because they have blown up, p/e on the sp500 is in the mid single digits, dividend yeild is at least 5%, then and only then will there be any real (after inflation) value to be had.
Government spending just makes things look good. But in reality it’s just making us middle class folks that pay taxes poorer. Its good for the bankers mind you, so I guess its ok then, right? Oh no, wait they’re the new scapegoats for Washington, along with anyone else they can blame for their own mistakes.
This is going to be a housingless and jobless recovery. Right? Oh, the talking heads on TV say yes. So it is true then. Since they are all knowing and rich, self made too… Right? No? Oh… Uh oh.
I don’t believe government manipulated numbers. I listen to guys who are self made and continue to get it right. I won’t name names here as I do not know if I am allowed, but they have made we quite wealthy in the last 4 years and I did not start off with much money. But I have made a lot since. None think this is a recovery. And I am starting to buy into TPCs article about depression instead of inflation (in the next 2 years anyways, seeing deflation rather then inflation).
One last thing – lessons from Japan – I don’t see a surge in consumption, btw.
“Re-balancing must occur, but as an accounting-identify matter it can occur both through good ways (a surge in consumption) and bad ways (a drop in growth).
In Japan it occurred the latter way. Without a serious attempt to redistribute income more rapidly back to households, Japan rebalanced, but not via a surge in consumption. Since it could not maintain investment levels, on which the economy was too dependent, and in fact increasingly dependent after 1987, it re-balanced via a sharp slowdown in growth”
http://mpettis.com/2010/03/stuck-in-neutral-%E2%80%93-what-japan%E2%80%99s-rebalancing-can-teach-us/
The negative news is abounding all around us and as time goes on there will no longer be any positive slanted stories available and the media will be forced to report the economic data that is negative ….of which the majority are already aware of. The Fed needs vehicles to carry out its work and JPM is and has been part of this whole process of which the Fed has clearly manipulated the markets at various points late in the day or after market trading giving the false picture that the markets are improving. So of course JPM will help with this image that whatever news coming out Friday will be just short term and to look beyond for the bigger trend which is place….all this is smoking mirrors and management by perception.
Pssst… Hey buddy, can you hold the back door for me so I can get these garbage bags of cash into my getaway car? What do you mean there’s smoke coming from the ceiling vents? That’s dry ice, and besides, the building is insured. Jeez what are you a moron? Stop asking questions. Do as I say, don’t do as I do.
Everyone nice and cozy? The movie will begin any moment.
WH talking points; nothing more; just another attempt at propping up the market prior to the midterm elections.
Thanks for posting this; just found your blog searching around. Keep up the good work!
Well gentlemen, quite frankly we are headed to in a direction that I never thought would have in this great country. I predict that the euro-dollar, yen, us dollar,will all collapse with in 18 24 months. Why do you think precious metals are going sky high.Look around you gentlemen, the landscape is the same in every part of this great country. people laid off, unemployment sky high, prices increasing on all fronts (gas prices, food prices, energy prices, etc.) And then add insult to injury, TARP Monies given away with no stips? Ask you Boss for an advance and tell him you’ll pay it back when ever? Will it work? Come on gentlemen, It was same for me in 75 when I worked as a contractor in Laos and Cambodia, I believed in this country, and I would give my life to defend this country, but do the politians really care they didn’t then and they care now.I was left ti fend for myself and did not get out until late 76. Come to find out later they just didn’t want to pay me. Greed gentlemen!! We as a country have lost all morale values, integrity, trust, “…I didn’t know that would be considered sex… remember? ” He legitimized lying and adultery!! What a great president he was. Thhe point I will conclude with is this.
1.) Everyone in this country who enters as an immigrant to be able to speak, read and write English. If you can’t read, write or speak english you will not have the privilage to drive, work, collect unemployment and will have to leave within 1 year period.
2.) US government call TARP Notes plus interest and penalties and late fees.
3.) Take to court all lenders in the sub prime defaults, that includes Barney Frank, Bill Clinton, BOA, Countrywide, Chase, Citi and AIG again and if I missed any please addthem to the list
4.) Put the welfare people that are abusing the system in jail.
5.) Focus more energy on education
6.) Give Tax credits for stay at home moms
7.) Shut down afghan and Iraq operations period. All we are doing are losing young men and women for what? ASk anybody you meet…” what happened on 9 eleven? Bring them home. As much of a hawk as I am, just bring them home.
8.)Did you ever notice that people in places of elected power given to them by the people, always believe in the motto, well it was done in the past it will be ok to take alittle nobody will notice.
9.) Gentlemen, I am fed up with the jockeying around for power positioning and the other BS that goes on in this great country, But, did are representatives ever ask us the voters about health care? I am tired of being told when to take the shot, where to go and what to do, why can’t these so called imp[ortant realize that there are people in this country that don’t give a dam and would spit on the flag? What about all of us that would give our lives protecting our flag? Are we just dying off? What hell will our children have? based on the bs going on nothing!!~
10.) It time now, to take an important step in the Country’s well being for its survival, fopr its heritage, for US!! We don’t have to stand idlely by while this party mocks up everything we have fought for as our fore fathers have done in the past,, we can vote this president out NOW before its too late.
Thank-you for allowing me to serve all of you to protect our beliefs, our liberties, our freedoms that most take very seriously. thank-you for allowing me to believe in this country and I pray and hope that we as the people and caretakers of our heritage will continue with our hard work.
Respectfully,
JJF Ret.LTCOL.
As I read some of the articles, I have to wonder Why all these battles are published for people to read and wonder what is going on in this evil world, but hardly anyone will realized that God is telling us in His Word that all those things must come to pass, but, “the end is not yet” says Jesus, and as Jesus Himself tells us that HE IS GOD, and KNOWS what is going on, until He come to get the ones who belong to Him, for He came in the form of a Babe and spent 33 years on this earth, to make known the Way to Heaven, as He says:” I AM THE WAY< THE TRUTH AND THE LIFE-NO ONE CAN COME TO THE FATHER, EXCEPT THROUGH ME". Once the Rapture occurs, this world will come to an end, and those who refuse/reject Jesus Christ as their OWN PERSONAL SAVIOR & LORD, will be left behind, to go through the BIG Tribulation which is coming upon this earth. If you want to escape this HORRIBLE tribulation, you MUST receive Jesus Christ in your heart & lives, and let Him guide your "destiny",(where you will spend ETERNITY…with Jesus, as the Anchor of your soul, you will spend your Eternal future with Jesus in Heaven..If Not, there's only the other awful place for the Christ rejecting people, which is called Hell; for Christ shed His own blood to cover your sin, so ask Him to be your Savior & follow What He says, and He'll take care of your destiny.-YOU KNOW THE SONG:"PEOPLE NEED THE LORD"? Well, there you are..He wants to save you, so you just have to ask Him, and you'll never be sorry to have invited Him in your heart, to SHOW you THE WAY…..May you seek Him today!! God Bless…I love you!