JP MORGAN: THE RECOVERY IS ABOUT TO BECOME SELF SUSTAINING
Few firms have been as bullish about the recovery as JP Morgan. And unfortunately for the bears, few firms have had it more spot on at every twist and turn. Their bullishness is only picking up momentum. Strategists at America’s second largest bank say the economy is much stronger than many presume and the recovery is about to become self sustaining:
“We believe that the global economy is making an important transition to self sustaining growth as the first quarter comes to an end. As part of this shift, GDP growth is re-accelerating following a modest downshift at the turn of the year. However, it is the significant broadening in G-3 demand, rather than the pickup in top-line growth, that will be the key marker for this transition.
We are becoming more bullish on economic growth, both in terms of how fast economies will grow and in terms of confidence that it will actually happen. Activity data across much of the world have surprised on the upside in recent weeks. Most important is that they
are showing greater breadth across regions, sectors, and types of spending.”
JP Morgan says the risks to economic growth lie to the upside as the recovery broadens, jobs growth improves and confidence accelerates. Based on this, they believe the equity rally should continue into April. They foresee a strong earnings season supporting prices:
“The equity rally should extend into next month, on stronger economic data and the start of the 1Q reporting season, from which we expect good news. The 4Q US reporting season posted a 7% upside surprise: The final operating S&P 500 EPS was 7% above the expectation at the start of the reporting season. Quarterly earnings surprises tend to exhibit strong serial correlation, repeating 82% of the time. This points to another positive surprise in the 1Q reporting season.”
Source: JPM
JPM has been predicting job gains since October. This was even before the massive downward adjustments that reported the recession had lost more then a million more jobs then previously thought.
While they have been spot on regarding the market recovery it seems the recovery has been caused by the massive liquidity reflation. Their predictions on economic activity have been consistently over optimistic.
This begs the question…why are rates still at ZERO?
Right? EVERYTHING seems to be coming up roses lately. But rates are at zero? That makes no sense. What does the government know that the rest of us don’t?
apparently, Ben knows what’s coming.
Of course JPM is promoting the stock market. That’s the business they are in. What else would they promote? Bullion? Real estate? No, that’s not the business they are in. It’s a simple matter of JPM trying to drive business to themselves. Anyone buying this should get some acreage on the moon.
Dont lets make this about the bears. It is about abuse of fraud: A confidence game, of knowing that it is difficult for the public or anyone to overturn a fraud, once it is perpetrated. FACT.
PragCap, sometimes I wonder how you arrive at the name for this blog and occasionally post damaging mis-information, fluff that is designed to overlook abuse of many American businesses and people in the society.
Please be advised it is not that hard to call the market if u r a fraudulent actor, or beneficieary of fraud and abuse, being perpetrated, on the economy. I too could pay out hush money to all my executives, and fraudulently call it “a bonus during a declared economic crisis,” as long as I had assurance of corruption in the Senate and at the Treasury Office and all this, while degenerate culture of fraud was being called “an economic emergency” or “recovery” from same.
How hard is it to Abuse Power and push off debt, make material changes in accounting methods, and then come behind with self-serving press releases, when you are part of a 58 percent corner on the market and have successfully ruined your competition by violating U.S.Code?
This would be like you going to your neighbor during a 100 year flood and while giving pretense of saving them, make sure their business in that city or region is ruined. (The real reason you are there is to make sure they are not able to save their business, and if they do manage to do positive things, you counsel them against it by making up reasons why they should not do positive things and instead encourage them to do the most stupid things, to the benefit of your business).
I give you all top level executives at JPM. Con-artists. Nothing more.
Many if not all are fraudulent actors or beneficiaries of another executives’ criminal fraud, which they help to conceal or fail to correctly disclose so that Americans can get out from under the burden of fraud, imposed.
Editing you want? Editing you get.
Understand your anger Bruerr, but confirmation bias my friend. As bearish as I am and as screwed as I think everything is I have been wrong for a few months now and appreciate PC printing stuff that might challenge my assumptions.
Its always more challenging to read stuff you don’t agree with.
TPC,
JPM is as right as were the business prognosticators in 1930; which a reading of Debtwatch: No. 34 by Steve Keen will explain to you. Nothing has really changed, we are about where they were and the same train is headed our way. It was just put off for a few more months because the whole world threw a ton of money at the problem this time. You will notice that I did not say that the world fixed anything. I wish we had fixed the system, but that will not happen under Obama and his merry group of socialists.