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LEUTHOLD TURNS MORE CAUTIOUS

20 December 2009 by Cullen Roche 4 Comments

Steven Leuthold, chairman of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about the prospects for a market correction. He has turned more cautious on the market, but still believes we are in a new cyclical bull market. Leuthold was famously bearish heading into the downturn and proved prescient when he turned bullish near the bottom. He says the market will be much more challenging in 2010 and says the second half has the potential to see a sizable downturn.

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Comments
  • James

    A lot of people are getting ”more cautious”. One thing for sure is that it is getting a lot more challenging.

    12/20/2009 at 4:44 PM
  • Scott Berglund

    Steve Leuthold is one of the most highly respected analysts and fund managers in the business, and I agree with your comment that he turned bearish early in the downturn. I take exception, however, to your comment that he turned bullish near the bottom. By his own admission, his models turned bullish many months prior to the March, 2009 low, which was born out by the 41.31% peak to trough loss suffered by his flagship mutual fund, Leuthold Core Investment (LCORX). By comparison, Vanguard Balanced Index (VBINX) (60% US Stocks/40% US Bonds), a good proxy for a balanced portfolio, experienced a smaller decline of 35.97%. Despite this misstep, his long term track record is excellent, and I highly value his views on the economy and the markets.

    12/21/2009 at 5:54 PM
  • Willy2

    Yes, Leuthold was right about the rally starting in march.

    Yes, we are still in a cyclical bull market but I think we are already near the very top of the market. I think the first signs of a reversal in the markets are already staring us in the face. i.e. the falling Eur/USD, AUD/USD and the rising USD/Yen. These are the first signs of the unwinding of the USD carry trade. And “Dubai” was the trigger for the markets to start turning.

    I also see a very distinct possibility of the both the 10- and the 30- yields going (sharply) higher and then everyone is in DEEP trouble.

    12/24/2009 at 11:31 AM
  • N

    Leuthold turned bullish before the crash, the statement above is wrong

    01/01/2010 at 4:50 PM