Comments on: LOOKING FORWARD TO 2010. OR IS IT 2004 ALL OVER AGAIN?

By: Duude

Duude — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:10:48 +0000

Another way to look at it is that a more extended overbought condition is quite desirable if one is hoping to make the most of a reversal. While Goldman can find ways to make money in all market conditions, nothing is as good as a strong trend, whether on the upside or downside. The most overbought and oversold conditions are the most profitable times to reverse course for the big wins. Considering the fact that December has been an extraordinarily strong month in the past, the rise we’ve seen since March and the universal expectation of pathetic economic growth going forward, most all ducks are lined up in a row for a big reversal kickoff to a nice long downtrend. If only we can turn the current trend into a climactic overbought condition.

By: Chance

Chance — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:07:43 +0000

Give me a fucking break. If the market goes up in December it will only be because the crooks at that firm continue to manipulate it higher. Die Goldman.

By: John Doodle

John Doodle — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:47:52 +0000

Goldman would have us believe we would all make money whatever asset classes we put our money: the above referenced equity, and recently Hatzius the great cry-wolf squid had us believe it would be sub-trend in 2010 and therefore great year for fixed income. Their commodities people recently scaled back oil price forecast temporarily to ease this week’s almost-record breaking treasuries issue, but insisted oil would be closer to $100 next year than Dec 2009. Needless to say, the only certainity is hat if we believe Goldman, then they would be the people laughing happiest to the bank when next year’s bonus is announced on Wall Street.

By: VCC

VCC — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:58:36 +0000

We have to be very careful comparing this crisis to anything we’ve seen since the GD. 2000-01 didn’t topple GM, Bear, or Lehman, companies that had seen and survived the worst of recessions. Nor were all asset classes red across the board in those years as we saw play out in 2008. But Goldman’s bullish bias would certainly have us believe this is 2004 playing out again. How much more will the bonus pool expand if that were the case?

By: jt26

jt26 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:04:15 +0000

As well, private credit continued to expand after 2000. The only thing expanding now is government liabilities and credit. Actually, maybe it is the same … I think commercial paper increased by ~1T from 2001 to 2007, now it’s the federal and state deficit by the same amount in about 8 months. I’d be very concerned after that first 1T is gone … (soon).