Here’s some perspective on the historical view of the markets in the month of March. This sort of data is certainly no holy grail, but it provides perspective on what can be a very seasonally sensitive world at times (via the Stock Trader’s Almanac):
In this next chart, DJIA’s 1-Year Seasonal Pattern for years 1950-2012 has been plotted (green line). Post-election years from 1950-2009 (black line) as well as 2013 year-to-date (blue line) are also presented. In all years, DJIA is on average unchanged in February. In post-election years, Februarys on average have declined just about 1.5%. As of today’s close, DJIA is down 0.55% for February, a little worse than all Februarys since 1950, but still faring much better than the typical post-election year February.
And some specific notes on March:
- Recent record: S&P 19 up, 10 down, average gain of 1.3%, fourth best.
- Rather turbulent in recent years with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses.