Might fund managers and big banks have it in their interest to keep the market from advancing too much yet this year? Maybe even letting it pull back a bit? Just a thought.

I continue to find it strange that Treasury rates move lower (10 year moves down from 3.31 to 3.27% on an up market down and sharply down dollar day, 3 month at practically zero and 30 day negative at times) while the dollar falls and stocks grind slowly higher.

One would think that Treasuries rates would increase on a falling dollar or a rising stock market unless there is anticipation of a reversal. PIMCO apparently has its largest % of treasury holdings in its Total Return Fund in years. Short term rates are as low or lower than during the Lehman/AIG crisis.

Something doesn’t smell right.

The rest of this year is likely a wash in my opinion. The best possibilities are setting up for January at the earliest.

Are you still waiting like a “lion in the grass” on the sidelines? (Maybe you should rename your site “The Patient Capitalist”.) How much further do you think the slide in the dollar can go before we see a (short-term) reversal? My patience is wearing thin. My guess is that there will be no pullback in the equity markets without a strengthening of the dollar.

I foolishly reduced my position from 42% to 37% equities by selling some of my foreign equities (on Monday morning) assuming completely incorrectly that the dollar would temporarily bottom against the Euro at just over 1.50. I was suprised to see it pass 1.51 today and the dollar index well below 75. I also figured incorrectly that since everyone expected the equity markets to go up on Thankgiving week that we might get an unexpected pullback. Seems to me that no one is talking of corrections or pullbacks anymore. Only the year-end rally which everyone (bulls and bears alike) now expects. When everyone expects the same thing does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy or might we get exactly the opposite?