Comments on: MARKET WRAP – CHALK ANOTHER ONE UP FOR THE BULLS http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:32:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Henry http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9200 Henry Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:55:34 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9200 Look like this thing hit earlier than I thought .... Look like this thing hit earlier than I thought ….

]]> By: van http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9182 van Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:52:49 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9182 NYSE NASDAQ Advances 1,673 (43%) 1,052 (37%) Declines 2,074 (53%) 1,645 (58%) NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 1,673 (43%) 1,052 (37%)
Declines 2,074 (53%) 1,645 (58%)

]]> By: Henry http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9181 Henry Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:56:57 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9181 with any other times, lower permit would have spark a sell off....not today...housing related companies are up...HD, URE, LOW, FRE... "Meanwhile, building permits came in at an annualized rate of 552,000, which is a slower pace than the annualized rate of 580,000 that economists, on average, had forecast." with any other times, lower permit would have spark a sell off….not today…housing related companies are up…HD, URE, LOW, FRE…
“Meanwhile, building permits came in at an annualized rate of 552,000, which is a slower pace than the annualized rate of 580,000 that economists, on average, had forecast.”

]]> By: Henry http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9180 Henry Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:48:56 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9180 that buying toward the last hour is an effort to prop up the market...nevertheless, I see some resemblance of the last couple times...AUGUST 24th, SEPT 21st, OCT 19th...I am expecting 1-2 more sideways trading & a drop. Could take place as soon as Friday OE. In addition to that, the bollinger bands start to level out that buying toward the last hour is an effort to prop up the market…nevertheless, I see some resemblance of the last couple times…AUGUST 24th, SEPT 21st, OCT 19th…I am expecting 1-2 more sideways trading & a drop. Could take place as soon as Friday OE. In addition to that, the bollinger bands start to level out

]]> By: Joe 401k http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9179 Joe 401k Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:24:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9179 Interesting comments, hfm, thanks. Interesting comments, hfm, thanks.

]]> By: JACK http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9178 JACK Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:03:59 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9178 Nice thoughts. thanx Nice thoughts. thanx

]]> By: hfm http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9177 hfm Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:56:19 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9177 a few thoughts of recent market action: 1) Very small volume could make a big up move. It means no sell pressure. Fund managers may try to balance their intention to buy or sell: if they sell now, they are afraid to miss the tradional Dec melt up; if they do not sell, but somebody else does, they need to follow. The market manipulators( could be GS or whoever) really take advantage this kind of psychology very well, so they hold up the market especially in the bad news day. I remember TPC has a post about " who is buying", it appears everybody knows sb is trying to support the market. So as long as the fund managers see this kind of market manipulating continue, they will not sell. Problem for the manipulator is : nobody buy either. Fund managers are holding what they have,not really buy the dip( a little disagree with TPC) because if fund managers really buy the dip, without selling pressure, the upside move should be much faster and bigger than it has been since Nov. The low volume in Nov is different from that of Aug. In Aug, people were expecting Sep and Oct traditional correction time, but Dec is suppose to be up month. If the fund managers want to buy dip, the volume should be much higher or the move should be much significant that it is. So the Manipulator could be either very arrogant that they could control very well, just as GS said they did the God's job, or they are a bit worry because they bought too much stocks to support the market. 2) I have been paying paticular attention to bank stocks. Since Sep, they underperformed the market. And you can see a lot funds sold bank stock in Q3, which include Paulson and SAC, evern GS sold WFC. WFC was really weak recently. It seems to me the funds sold the risky stocks for conservative ones, which is the end of a typical false bull or bull market. 3) The uncertainty of 2010 is obvious, will every fund managers wait till the end of 2009 to sell or will they sell slowly in Dec? 4) THe Q3 beat expectation game not performed well, so you see the little correction started in mid of Oct. Will the Q4 "beat expectation" game work? I really doubt. Especially with the banks's market weekness since Sep, I do not think banks will have a very good Q4. 5) Today's housing start could be a temporary. But the purchase index of mortgage application dropped to lowest since 1997, this is after the tax credit extension. It could imply that Nov home sale number will not pick up even with the tax credit extension. that number will be released end of Dec, will that worry market at that particular sensitive time? a few thoughts of recent market action:

1) Very small volume could make a big up move. It means no sell pressure. Fund managers may try to balance their intention to buy or sell: if they sell now, they are afraid to miss the tradional Dec melt up; if they do not sell, but somebody else does, they need to follow. The market manipulators( could be GS or whoever) really take advantage this kind of psychology very well, so they hold up the market especially in the bad news day. I remember TPC has a post about ” who is buying”, it appears everybody knows sb is trying to support the market. So as long as the fund managers see this kind of market manipulating continue, they will not sell.
Problem for the manipulator is : nobody buy either. Fund managers are holding what they have,not really buy the dip( a little disagree with TPC) because if fund managers really buy the dip, without selling pressure, the upside move should be much faster and bigger than it has been since Nov. The low volume in Nov is different from that of Aug. In Aug, people were expecting Sep and Oct traditional correction time, but Dec is suppose to be up month. If the fund managers want to buy dip, the volume should be much higher or the move should be much significant that it is.
So the Manipulator could be either very arrogant that they could control very well, just as GS said they did the God’s job, or they are a bit worry because they bought too much stocks to support the market.

2) I have been paying paticular attention to bank stocks. Since Sep, they underperformed the market. And you can see a lot funds sold bank stock in Q3, which include Paulson and SAC, evern GS sold WFC. WFC was really weak recently.
It seems to me the funds sold the risky stocks for conservative ones, which is the end of a typical false bull or bull market.

3) The uncertainty of 2010 is obvious, will every fund managers wait till the end of 2009 to sell or will they sell slowly in Dec?

4) THe Q3 beat expectation game not performed well, so you see the little correction started in mid of Oct. Will the Q4 “beat expectation” game work? I really doubt. Especially with the banks’s market weekness since Sep, I do not think banks will have a very good Q4.

5) Today’s housing start could be a temporary. But the purchase index of mortgage application dropped to lowest since 1997, this is after the tax credit extension. It could imply that Nov home sale number will not pick up even with the tax credit extension. that number will be released end of Dec, will that worry market at that particular sensitive time?

]]> By: John McNamara http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9176 John McNamara Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:55:10 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9176 Another blog I read suggests you look at the 15 minute interval charts of today and yesterday and you can see virtually the same afternoon trading patterns. The odds of this happening in a supposedly "random" trading environment are, well, you get the idea. You cannot be watching the market closely and not conclude that the action is overwhelmingly be driven by program buying. Another blog I read suggests you look at the 15 minute interval charts of today and yesterday and you can see virtually the same afternoon trading patterns. The odds of this happening in a supposedly “random” trading environment are, well, you get the idea. You cannot be watching the market closely and not conclude that the action is overwhelmingly be driven by program buying.

]]> By: SS http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9174 SS Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:31:15 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9174 If you buy at 10:30 every morning you can make a small fortune in this market. It really is a cant lose market. If you buy at 10:30 every morning you can make a small fortune in this market. It really is a cant lose market.

]]> By: JACK http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-chalk-another-one-up-for-the-bulls/comment-page-1#comment-9173 JACK Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:29:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13024#comment-9173 TPC, On these light churn days when the market is down only neglibly, you can almost set your clock to the fact that the market will recoup most of its losses in the last 10-20 minutes of trading. It's almost uncanny how everything seems to reverse and the trend line ramps up at a 45 degree angle to close the day. I do believe herding fund managers are buying the dips, but that buying should be distributed throughtout the day. How much of this underlying bid to the market is coming from program trading? TPC, On these light churn days when the market is down only neglibly, you can almost set your clock to the fact that the market will recoup most of its losses in the last 10-20 minutes of trading. It’s almost uncanny how everything seems to reverse and the trend line ramps up at a 45 degree angle to close the day. I do believe herding fund managers are buying the dips, but that buying should be distributed throughtout the day. How much of this underlying bid to the market is coming from program trading?

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