MARKET WRAP – STOCKS REBOUND
As has been the case so many times throughout this rally, the bearishness of yesterday proved short-lived. As we mentioned yesterday, the market’s knee-jerk reaction to Alcoa was unjustified. Stocks jumped 0.8% on the day. Volume was light again, but breadth was quite strong at 3:1. Intel and JP Morgan are likely to provide some fireworks Thursday and Friday, but the real action won’t begin until early next week. Daily Futures has the action from all markets:
U.S. Economy
The Federal Reserve’s monthly Beige Book said that “ten (of the twelve) Districts reported some increased activity or improvement in conditions.” Mixed conditions were reported from Philadelphia and Richmond.
The U.S. Treasury sold $21 billion of 10-year T-notes at a median yield of 3.70% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.00.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 14% to 528.1 last week.
Grains and Cotton
The USDA said that 106,680 tons of U.S. corn were sold to Japan and 116,000 tons of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations. March corn closed down 8.5 cents at $3.84 after yesterday’s limit-down finish.
Due to late harvests, the USDA said that it will re-survey corn and soybean producers in several states and publish the results in the March 10 USDA report. March soybeans closed up 14.5 cents at $9.925.
Orange juice
It could be weeks before we know just how bad the Florida citrus crop was damaged by this month’s cold weather, but the ten-day forecast remains safely warm for now. March orange juice fell 3.70 cents to $1.3270.
Energies
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 3.7 million barrels last week to 331.0 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were up 3.8 million barrels and heating oil supplies were down 1.1 million barrels. March crude oil closed down $1.13 at $80.04.
The DOE also said that refinery use increased from 79.9% to 81.3% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .4% from a year ago while distillate demand was down 4.0% from a year ago.
The 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service expects above average temperatures for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. March natural gas closed up 15.2 cents at $5.704.
Metals
According to Bloomberg news, India imported 343 tons of gold in 2009, down from 420 tons in 2008. February gold closed up $7.40 at $1,136.80.
Currencies
The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said that its manufacturing index was unchanged in November and down 5.4% from a year ago. The March British pound gained 1.04 cents to $1.6275.
Germany’s Federal Statistical Office said that real GDP was down 5.0% in 2009, weaker than expected.
I think we’re gonna see red tomorrow TPC. At the open my guess is that stocks are down. After then, who the hell knows buddy.
I doubt we’ll see decisive action ahead of Intel and JP Morgan. If anything, I expect claims to boost the market slightly tomorrow. Intel could very well disappoint. My analysis is not adding up to a blockbuster quarter, but again, any sell-off will be a buying opportunity into next week when the majority of firms will report good quarters.
One more question, who the hell is not locking in profits at this level??? Take some profits fools!!!
LOL.
The ones that think there’s no stopping till S&P gets to 1250 if we close above 1150. The smart bulls have either taken partial profits or hedged.
There is no FUNDAMENTAL reason to sell as of yet. I hear lots of people pointing to fishy chart patterns, false sentiment readings, etc, but not one real fundamental selling catalyst.
“As we mentioned yesterday, the market’s knee-jerk reaction to Alcoa was unjustified.”
A little to early to say whether the move was justified or not, lets see how things play out next week after OE.
I think TPC is pressing his luck.
I can afford to press my luck when I am sitting on gains….
the positive bias of the earning season has been mentioned every three months. i look back and get the rough number as follow:
SPX
Apr 2009 gain: about 72 points
Jul 2009 gain: about 80 points
Oct 2009 gain: about 9 points
Jan 2010 gain: so far, 30 points or so. if the gain continue to shrink or just stay the same, are we going to see some correction in the coming days?
if i remember correctly, Oct 2009 had several “sell on news(strong earning report)” days. i wonder if we will see that again this month? it surely feel like it if we consider the Dec/Jan rally as a pre-run to good earnings.
just my 2 cents
I fully expect a sell the news mentality to take hold exactly like it did last earnings season. Hopefully, I will be ahead of it this season as I was during the last….