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MARKET WRAP – STOCKS RECOUP LOSSES

29 October 2009 by Cullen Roche 5 Comments

Stocks bounced back from yesterday’s losses with big gains.  The S&P rallied 2.2% on the day.  The bounce wasn’t all that surprising considering the deeply negative sentiment heading into this morning’s GDP reading.  The potential for a much worse than expected figure was alleviated when the report came in relatively robust (though mostly government generated).   The breadth of the rally was impressive at 4:1 and rally was less than impressive for such a large move, but that is a trend we have seen throughout much of this move higher.  Daily Futures wraps up the action from across all markets:

U.S. Economy
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up almost .9% in the third quarter, better than expected. From a year ago, real GDP was down 2.3%.

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 1,000 last week to 530,000. The December 2010 eurodollars were down .055 at 98.35.

The U.S. Treasury sold $31 billion of 7-year T-notes at a median yield of 3.02% with a bid to cover ratio of 2.65. The December U.S. T-bonds fell 1.04/32nds to 118.22/32nds.

Grains and Cotton
The USDA said that, as of last week, 2009-2010 exports of:
Corn remained up 12% from a year ago.
Soybeans fell from up 11% to up 9% from a year ago.
Wheat remained down 35% from a year ago.
Cotton fell from down 31% to down 33% from a year ago.

Rain is falling again over the western half of the Midwest and moving eastward. December corn closed up 10.5 cents at $3.795.

December cotton closed up .69 at 67.57 while rain continues to hit the already muddy cotton fields in the Mississippi River Delta.

Livestock
Chinese officials agreed to end their ban on imports of U.S. pork. The ban was created six months ago in response to the outbreak of the H1N1 virus. Health officials agree that eating properly cooked pork is safe. December hogs closed up 1.25 at 57.20, the highest close in three months.

The USDA said that net sales of beef totaled 11,300 tons last week, up from 7,100 tons the previous week. December cattle closed down .65 at 86.27.

Lumber
January lumber closed up its $10 maximum daily limit, helped by today’s better-than-expected GDP report.

Sugar
March sugar closed up .88 at 22.81, bouncing back from yesterday’s loss with help from today’s weaker dollar.

Metals
In spite of record high gold prices, Barrick Gold reported a loss of $5.4 billion in the third quarter of 2009, after closing out its hedge positions. The company is expected to produce 7.4 million ounces of gold this year and 7.9 million ounces in 2010. December gold finished up $16.60 at $1,047.10.

The International Monetary Fund said that it expects 2010 GDP growth of 9% in China and 6.4% in India. December copper closed up 9.90 cents at $3.0295.

Energies
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 25 billion cubic feet last week to 3.759 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 11% from a year ago.

Exxon reported earnings of $4.73 billion in the third quarter, down from $14.83 billion a year ago. December crude oil jumped up $2.41 to $79.87, encouraged by today’s positive GDP report.

Currencies
Japan’s Trade Ministry said that industrial output was up 1.4% in September, the seventh consecutive month higher. The December yen ended down .0088 at 1.0928 ahead of tonight’s unemployment report.

Source: DF

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Comments
  • Rob

    TPC,

    Are you still in the camp that stocks are dangerous here and expecting a correction before year-end?

    Today was practically a mirror image of yesterday. I wonder if today really changes sentiment.

  • Henry

    I do wonder how many join the short camp yesterday just to get whupped today. Today jump is very bullish…
    As for the last couple days, it drops on better than expected earning…

  • Aki_Izayoi

    “Are you still in the camp that stocks are dangerous here and expecting a correction before year-end?

    Today was practically a mirror image of yesterday. I wonder if today really changes sentiment

    I do not know about sentiment, but as we all learned during the rally, the labor market is not the stock market. A crappy labor market does not lead to a bearish position in the stock market. The real economy will remain bad… everyone knows that and holding that general position isn’t “contrarian.” The real question is sentiment. Generally people who have to deal with a crappy labor market would be glum, but what about financial market participants?

    • Rob

      My question is that yesterday sentiment was very negative. Many were calling for a correction. Monday there was a major mid-day reveral. IBD turned negative on the market yesterday. The bears like Rosenberg were out in force. I was told that Art Cashin said on CNBC this morning that yesterday was at risk of being a down 800 point type day. The bears were yearning for 1929 today.

      Yesterday the market steadily fell all day (no big up or down movement just a steady trend down), supposedly of relatively heavy volume. Today the market started the day up slightly and steadily rose all day erasing yesterday’s loses on the S&P 500, more than easing the losses on the Dow and fell short of erasing the loses on the NASDAQ.

      Yesterday was the biggest move down in months and today was the biggest move up. On the face of it they cancel each other out. VIX spiked and the de-spiked. What is the opinion? Is this a turning point or just more noise? Are we now on a clear path to Ken Fisher’s prediction of a 20% move up by year end. (By the way he thinks that by July 2010 the market might get back to the 2007 highs. 16 months down and 16 months up – an perfect V).

      Nominal GDP was really not much better than expected. The deflator was lower than expected which increased the real GDP calculation. Is that good? A deflationary level on the GDP deflator? Or was it the decrease in unemployment that moved the market? Or PG’s results? Or the alignment between Venus and Jupiter? Did GS change there forecast of GDP from 3.0 to 2.7 yesterday just to get the sellers out in force so they could buy, buy, buy? And the sell, sell, sell, today?

      Break out the lithium.

      • Tom

        I think the focus has changed from earnings to the economy. Expectations for the economy have also changed with the announcement of positive GDP growth. My guess is that investors will be looking for confirmation that the expansion is continuing, and that “less bad” is probably not good enough anymore. I think the risk is to the downside, since the market has largely priced in a recovery, but is vulnerable to economic news suggesting the recovery will disapoint.