MARKET WRAP – THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND….
The rally that began 4 weeks ago continues to gather momentum. The market closed at the highs of the day with a 0.4% gain. Volume was moderate and breadth was positive at 1.5:1. The impressive stats just continue to pile on top of one another. The S&P is now back at the January high and is up 9 of the last 10 sessions. Bank stocks have risen 21 of the last 24 sessions and are now up 10 sessions in a row. The VIX fell for the first time in 3 days, but also extended its impressive momentum to the downside with its 18th down day in the last 22. It’s hard to say that this hasn’t been the absolutely most impressive part of the entire rally since last March. It has been on little to no news, very low volume, but is relentless in its push higher as sentiment surges to a very bullish positions. Whether this is a rational move or not is irrelevant. The bulls clearly have the upper hand.
From Daily Futures:
U.S. Economy
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 6,000 last week to 462,000, a little more than expected.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports were down $.5 billion to $142.7 billion in January while imports were down $3.1 billion to $180.0 billion. The result was net imports of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December.
The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds at a median yield of 4.645% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.89, the highest since September. The June U.S. T-bonds finished up 9/32nds at 116.19/32nds.
Grains and Cotton
The USDA said that, as of last week, 2009-2010 exports of:
Corn fell from up 7% to up 6% from a year ago.
Soybeans fell from up 34% to up 33% from a year ago.
Wheat improved from down 22% to down 21% from a year ago.
Cotton improved from down 25% to down 23% from a year ago.
May cotton fell 1.44 cents to 78.77.
May soybeans closed down 27.5 cents at $9.305, pressured by expectations that world supplies will increase this year.
Livestock
The USDA said that net sales of beef totaled 14,100 tons last week, up from 5,200 tons the previous week. June cattle were up .22 at 91.95.
Canada’s Food Inspection Agency said that a 6-year old beef cow in Alberta was confirmed with bovine spongiform encephalopathy last month. It was the 17th incident since 2003.
Energies
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 111 billion cubic feet last week to 1.626 trillion cubic feet, as expected. Supplies are now down 4% from a year ago. May natural gas dropped 11.8 cents to $4.506, the lowest in over a year.
Metals
May copper ended up .0090 at $3.3770 after reports that Chile experienced two more earthquakes this morning.
Consumer prices in China were up 2.7% in February from a year ago, the most in 16 months. Some are saying that an increase in interest rates may be ahead.
Currencies
Australia’s Statistics Bureau said that the unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% in February with a net gain of 400 jobs, less than expected. The June Australian dollar ended down .01 at 90.60.
Japan’s Cabinet Office said that real GDP was up .9% in the fourth quarter and down 1.4% from a year ago, less than last month’s estimate.
Statistics Canada said that exports were up .5% in January at C$33.0 billion while imports were down 1.7% to C$32.2 billion. The result was net exports of C$799 million. Also, industries operated at 70.9% of capacity in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from 68.7% in the third quarter.
An analyst at the Royal Bank of Canada said that he expects real GDP to be up 3.1% in 2010.



This isn’t just impressive. It’s downright amazing. I just looked back at the entire rally…We haven’t seen ANYTHING even close to this the entire time. The market goes up every day. You can’t lose.
bullish posturing before tomorrow’s retail sales. I’m hearing that retail sales are going to be better than expected. That would mean a breakout to new highs and 1200 from there.
I think you were smart to wait and short TPC. A lot of people got short after the market started going down a month ago and got caught on the wrong side. Now they’re all scrambling to cover. This is a classic short covering squeeze on no news. The shorts just keep waiting it out for the market to move lower, but its not happening. Once they capitulate this move is over and we’ll drop at least 5%. I feel very comfortable building a short position here.
TPC,
Timing wise I think any short-term weaknesses will need to be resolve in the next few trading days…Really not the time to fully short yet. Sell in May and go away will probably make a vengeful return this year so I would look around there to short…Otherwise I think buying weaknesses is still the way to go.
The market’s up 0.8% since I got short. I’m not exactly losing sleep over it. I’ll probably look to add some more shorts if we continue to melt up. I really like my odds here or higher.
Tpc
i think we have at most 2~3% max decline (1118-1122) while the upside is about 1200-1250. not really good odds in my opinion.
Perhaps. I don’t see how sentiment can get much more bullish though. Where will the buyers come from?
My guess is we correct 5% before we see 1200….I’m still constructive on H1, but not in the next few weeks….
I increased my shorts today and I’m looking for some sort of reverse signal in the next few sessions, I think that chances mkt will get more bullish from current levels should be quite slim…We’ll see
“Where will the buyers come from?”
imho, there is only one buyer…acting through several proxies. Its no different than a casino higher professional gamblers and giving a never lose backstop…BIG percentage of the profits. If it weren’t the USG, RICO would apply.
I don’t think you are going to go wrong on the short side. If you are short this market, it shows you are reasoning. If you are long, it shows you’re busy deluding yourself in a game of rationalization. Reason always wins in the end. Small caps, financials, tech – on and on – are grossly overbought.
A lot of comments tonight, and articles across the web, seem to just boil down to everyone counting on markets to go higher, because well, they keep going higher. This scares me. Let me make this call: don’t count on seeing S&P 1200 any time this year. Now comment on that.
The market looks like it is drawing a wonderful double top, to be followed by a pop.
Andrew
there is one element that we need to remember. Many of the fence sitters such as trimtabs have now gone long. They are gonna pull additional money into the market from money market fund.
Mike,
Do you think you’re the first person to position yourself for a move to 1200? People have been talking about that for weeks. You’re being awfully greedy about a 4% move….If people start to sell you’re gonna wipe out your gains.
Dan,
We are still in an uptrend channel from the low of feb. Currently we are riding right on the top rail so technically you can short but we could continue to crawl up the rail for a bit. I would short once we break the lower rail (around 1118-1120) since it would give me a clear place to place stops. I would lose that potential 30 pts from the top rail but if the trend has indeed change, I could still capture the remaining 30+ points with less risk. My preference is to go long from there if we get the decline though. I am not chasing the market higher but plan on buying on corrections instead.
It is obvious the Retail report has been leaked.
Surprise –Surprise
“Clear Sailing” for the Bull
someone should tell this retail reports makers that sales taxes are decling on yoy basis…
I received a great stock tip from a shoeshine kid today!
Tomorrow I’m all in!
I’m a broker at a big firm in NY and we have been getting bombarded with calls in the mornings from our investors. I dont know how badly I want to be short, but the small investor is definitely buying the rally.
talk about a contrary signal