Comments on: MERRILL LYNCH’S BULLISH 2010 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK – A BUBBLE IN PESSIMISM http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:32:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: AWF http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9916 AWF Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:45:10 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9916 Looks like everything is going up --- where are my darts Looks like everything is going up — where are my darts

]]> By: VCC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9902 VCC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:33:28 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9902 Rob, that's because the paradigm thru which they view the markets is horribly flawed. I would be stumbling around too if my glasses were fogged over and all I knew was the general destination was historically up, save a few steep cliffs along the way. Let's not kid ourselves and say these cats make huge macro calls and that's where the profit comes from. Much of their business involves making money from everything a healthy, upwards moving market creates. But the idea that we were saved b/c savvy old Ben and sagely Tim printed enough money to get us out by our chinny chin chins is absolutely nuts. The biggest question is what happens when these banks need another bailout? There will be no stomach to give them more public funds after they wash themselves in cash this bonus season. Where will the next round of capital come from and at what price? But for now I'm left thinking about Roger's quote to tech ticker a couple days ago: "The idea you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more consumption and more debt defies belief. I cannot believe that grownups would stand there and say that." Rob, that’s because the paradigm thru which they view the markets is horribly flawed. I would be stumbling around too if my glasses were fogged over and all I knew was the general destination was historically up, save a few steep cliffs along the way. Let’s not kid ourselves and say these cats make huge macro calls and that’s where the profit comes from. Much of their business involves making money from everything a healthy, upwards moving market creates.

But the idea that we were saved b/c savvy old Ben and sagely Tim printed enough money to get us out by our chinny chin chins is absolutely nuts. The biggest question is what happens when these banks need another bailout? There will be no stomach to give them more public funds after they wash themselves in cash this bonus season. Where will the next round of capital come from and at what price? But for now I’m left thinking about Roger’s quote to tech ticker a couple days ago: “The idea you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more consumption and more debt defies belief. I cannot believe that grownups would stand there and say that.”

]]> By: Rob http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9899 Rob Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:00:56 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9899 These are the same banks that all put sell rating on their peers just weeks before the March bottom. That sounded like blatent manipulation to me at the time. "Look out below, sell all your bank shares... to me." How many fund manager's beat the market consistently year after year? Very few. How many analysts and strategists get their market calls correct constistently year after year. Very few, not even at Goldman Sachs. Often not even in the right direction. How many who get the macro trends right can get the timing right? The tech bubble was obvious to anyone with a brain, ditto the housing bubble, but it went on and on and on until the doubters were no longer listened to. That is when the bubble finally pops. This time it is the liquidity bubble(s). These are the same banks that all put sell rating on their peers just weeks before the March bottom. That sounded like blatent manipulation to me at the time. “Look out below, sell all your bank shares… to me.”

How many fund manager’s beat the market consistently year after year? Very few. How many analysts and strategists get their market calls correct constistently year after year. Very few, not even at Goldman Sachs. Often not even in the right direction.

How many who get the macro trends right can get the timing right? The tech bubble was obvious to anyone with a brain, ditto the housing bubble, but it went on and on and on until the doubters were no longer listened to. That is when the bubble finally pops. This time it is the liquidity bubble(s).

]]> By: VCC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9886 VCC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:24:54 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9886 The banks that are now controlling trading were the same ones that were in free fall for much of the last two years. Huh? Not a big fan of these bullish bank reports. These guys were dead center in the crisis that they never saw coming, and they're now telling us the sky is clear again, dollar will go up, stocks will go up, everything will go up up up up up. I can't help but think of Blankfein in summer 2008 when he said "we're in the seventh innning of the crisis." And now we're to believe these clowns as they gorge themselves at the government trough?? I find the guru outlooks much more helpful. Those guys don't have the same upward directional bias as the major banks. A double-dip and falling market are pretty bad for business, hence their need to put lipstick on the pig that is the bloated s&p. The banks that are now controlling trading were the same ones that were in free fall for much of the last two years. Huh?

Not a big fan of these bullish bank reports. These guys were dead center in the crisis that they never saw coming, and they’re now telling us the sky is clear again, dollar will go up, stocks will go up, everything will go up up up up up. I can’t help but think of Blankfein in summer 2008 when he said “we’re in the seventh innning of the crisis.” And now we’re to believe these clowns as they gorge themselves at the government trough??

I find the guru outlooks much more helpful. Those guys don’t have the same upward directional bias as the major banks. A double-dip and falling market are pretty bad for business, hence their need to put lipstick on the pig that is the bloated s&p.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9883 TPC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:17:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9883 First half is unanimously bullish from what I've seen. I'd say this was a contrarian sign if I didn't know that the banks are controlling the trading. First half is unanimously bullish from what I’ve seen. I’d say this was a contrarian sign if I didn’t know that the banks are controlling the trading.

]]> By: BGray http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9881 BGray Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:13:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9881 Even so, they both see 1st half with robust growth. Even so, they both see 1st half with robust growth.

]]> By: BGray http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9880 BGray Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:04:00 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9880 True. There are still lots of bears out there. Retail mom and pops haven't come in. I'm not sure that they will either though but that's how markets top. Who has money left to invest after 1) they supposedly sold at the low 2) any savings they have has to be used to pay down debt 3) if somebody lost their job in the family they invariably will need to cut into savings 4) healthcare, education, gas prices all up. Perhaps all those foreclosures are good for something. Rents have come down and those who have forgone their homes no longer need to pay huge mortgages. They can start saving. True. There are still lots of bears out there. Retail mom and pops haven’t come in. I’m not sure that they will either though but that’s how markets top. Who has money left to invest after 1) they supposedly sold at the low 2) any savings they have has to be used to pay down debt 3) if somebody lost their job in the family they invariably will need to cut into savings 4) healthcare, education, gas prices all up.
Perhaps all those foreclosures are good for something. Rents have come down and those who have forgone their homes no longer need to pay huge mortgages. They can start saving.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9878 TPC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:51:16 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9878 their theme.... their theme….

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9877 TPC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:50:58 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9877 I should add. I kind of like there theme of a bubble in pessimism. It may not be true, but it's an interesting thought. Are investors so turned off after the credit crisis that a slowly melting higher market will sucker them all back in? I should add. I kind of like there theme of a bubble in pessimism. It may not be true, but it’s an interesting thought. Are investors so turned off after the credit crisis that a slowly melting higher market will sucker them all back in?

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/merrill-lynchs-bullish-2010-outlook-a-bubble-in-pessimism/comment-page-1#comment-9876 TPC Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:49:30 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14203#comment-9876 Gray, Both MS and CS are calling for difficult years. Both are, in my opinion, the best of the best. http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanley-stocks-are-set-to-decline-in-2010 http://pragcap.com/credit-suisse-equities Gray,

Both MS and CS are calling for difficult years. Both are, in my opinion, the best of the best.

http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanley-stocks-are-set-to-decline-in-2010

http://pragcap.com/credit-suisse-equities

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