MONDAY’S MUST READS
The Consumer Is Weak, VERY Weak:
Global Stocks Plunge – Bloomberg
Look Out Below - TBP
Buckle Up! – Nathan’s Econ Edge
Lowe’s Profit Misses Expectations, Stock Plunges – Yahoo
“Wavering consumer confidence, unseasonable weather in core markets, and restrained customer spending compared to last year’s fiscal stimulus-aided results led to lower than expected sales in the second quarter,” Robert A. Niblock, Lowe’s chairman and CEO, said in a statement.
Limited Potential In GDP Expansion - Hussman
Valuations Are Bearish - Bespoke
The Triumph Of Pessimism - Alhambra
The Recovery Could Be More Difficult Than The Downturn - WFC
Fragility Won’t Easily Subside - WSJ
Excess Capacity Could Pose a Major Threat - Telegraph
Social Security Crunch Coming Fast - Fleckenstein
Is Seasonal Rebound In Housing Over?
Foreclosure Tsunami Coming – Mish
UK Housing Prices Drop At Fastest Pace of 2009 - Independent
The Commercial Real Estate Decline Is Just Beginning - ABC
The Bulls Will Be Buying The Dips:
Will The Recovery Go Global? – RCM
There’s no way the Fed/Treasury will let the sell-off get out of hand. They’ve invested 10′s (100′s) of billions of dollars getting the market to go up, they’re not going to sit idly by and lose it all.
The recovery could be more difficult than the recovery because there will be no end in sight. The dreary conditions will drag on with job growth anemic at best and wages stagnate if not dropping.
At least in the recession people can tell themselves that it will get better, “because it always does.” They can be optimistic, thinking that they just need to hunker down a little while and then a new and growing economy will emerge. But when the recovery comes and nothing appears to improve, the emotional depression settles in and the reality of the situation can no longer be denied.
That’s when the market will reflect reality again. And the Fed can’t stop the overpowering force in the markets. That’s just the current urban legend that’s emboldening the bulls these days.
It might be labeled a recovery, but it will still feel like a recession. That’s my take.