MONDAY’S MUST READS
- 10 reasons to be bullish - Trader’s Narrative
- Technicians await the bear - Barrons
- What’s so bad about deflation? - Slate
- An interview with Seth Hamot - Selected Financials
- At the precipice – deep thoughts by Prof Pinch - Prof Pinch
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More on this topic (What's this?)The Deflation Bogeyman, Part 2 (Expected Returns, 8/20/10)Jeremy Grantham: Deflation Wins (Expected Returns, 7/20/10)Deflation Requires New Strategy for Investors (The Globe and Mail) (The Contrary Investing Report, 7/19/10)Deflation Alert: Employers Cutting Pay, Consumer Growth Index Points to Downturn (naked capitalism, 8/3/10)
Your title on deflation here is the exact title of an article I wrote last week. Gross fails to make the simplest connection in his article when talking about “good” deflation and that is that the fed did not really exist for the majority of those times. During the 20′s is when they really started to do their damage and brought the Depression of the 30s along.
I’ve argued for some time that what we are seeing today is mean reversion for prices that got out of hand. It’s not really deflation in the classical/traditional sense. If the Fed and Uncle Sam would get out of the way and let businesses fail we would see inventories decline appropriately, we’d see slack tighten up, and we would purge ourselves of many of the excesses we are currently keeping on life support.