Comments on: MORNING MUSINGS http://pragcap.com/morning-musings Sat, 26 May 2012 00:41:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: TPC http://pragcap.com/morning-musings/comment-page-1#comment-7645 TPC Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:57:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11335#comment-7645 Pretty useless. The stock market, confidence data and interest rates make up a huge portion of the data. I don't know that "leading" indicators of any sort have ever proven more useful than the stock market as a leading indicator and unfortunately, the stock market is not a great leading indicator. Nor is confidence. Interest rates are likely the best indicator in this index and the low interest rate environment of today is forecasting weak growth and deflation..... Pretty useless. The stock market, confidence data and interest rates make up a huge portion of the data. I don’t know that “leading” indicators of any sort have ever proven more useful than the stock market as a leading indicator and unfortunately, the stock market is not a great leading indicator. Nor is confidence. Interest rates are likely the best indicator in this index and the low interest rate environment of today is forecasting weak growth and deflation…..

]]> By: JR http://pragcap.com/morning-musings/comment-page-1#comment-7644 JR Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:53:26 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11335#comment-7644 TPM, do you give any credence to the "unexpectedly" positive LEI data from the Conference Board today? Or is it simply biased by stock market performance, etc.? e.g.: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=axR0eCguPdJo TPM, do you give any credence to the “unexpectedly” positive LEI data from the Conference Board today? Or is it simply biased by stock market performance, etc.?
e.g.:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=axR0eCguPdJo

]]> By: Russ http://pragcap.com/morning-musings/comment-page-1#comment-7643 Russ Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:53:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11335#comment-7643 Continuing claims dropped by 98K which is a clear sign that the ratio of firings to hirings is becoming more favorable. maybe not -- 7,000 people a day are losing their unemployment benefits. I am sure that means that they are showing employed. Continuing claims dropped by 98K which is a clear sign that the ratio of firings to hirings is becoming more favorable.

maybe not — 7,000 people a day are losing their unemployment benefits. I am sure that means that they are showing employed.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/morning-musings/comment-page-1#comment-7642 TPC Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:23:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11335#comment-7642 Jobs are the lifeblood of an economy. I wrote some more detailed notes here on the jobs market: http://pragcap.com/small-companies-struggling Jobs are the lifeblood of an economy. I wrote some more detailed notes here on the jobs market:

http://pragcap.com/small-companies-struggling

]]> By: Jack http://pragcap.com/morning-musings/comment-page-1#comment-7640 Jack Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:09:51 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11335#comment-7640 TPC, do you put any creedance into the trend of falling continuing claims when the extended claims go up at the same time, suggesting perhaps that chronic, long term unemployed are either dropping out of the workforce or just rolling onto extended claims after they exhaust normal benefits? TPC, do you put any creedance into the trend of falling continuing claims when the extended claims go up at the same time, suggesting perhaps that chronic, long term unemployed are either dropping out of the workforce or just rolling onto extended claims after they exhaust normal benefits?

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