MUST SEE HUGH HENDRY INTERVIEW
8 July 2009 by Cullen Roche
9 Comments
Excellent 3 part interview here with Hugh Hendry of Eclectica capital. He displays some exceptional common sense:
Great stuff.
Source: FT
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Comments
He states his contrarian approach when the market has already shown that his view is consensus. The poor performance of his funds would also suggest some disconnect between his stated and his actual approach. Whilst I agree with many of the more obvious points, I see little in this interview that would lead me to seek this chap’s advice.
He is definitely interesting to listen to..I think his big ego is detrimental to his performance and he does not seem to be able to change and move with the market.
One part one, near the end, he said that the bond bull market ends when everyone would go in. I suppose he is expecting lower yields than December’s lows. However, I disagree with Hugh that we would have something like the Japanese government bond market in early 2003.
I do not know about China, but I do have a bearish look and I do like to play short oil and copper (although I do not have those trades as I do not have a trading account; but my parents were convinced by my reasoning to short the US equity market in June and did that; they found commodity, currency, and leveraged bond speculation not to be for them)… I doubt there central planners were competent during the Mao years. Even the German Democratic Republic had a higher average standard of living than the average Chinese person or the poor in Hong Kong today. I do not see China shifting to a consumption based economy anymore given their saving rate is very high and their dependency ratio is rising. This will translate into low intertemporal discount rates for their population and that isn’t conducive for saving. I doubt China would develop a consumer economy that would offer a standard of living that would trump that of a person living in DDR given there too many people there to drive down wages.
Hendry is really extreme in his deleveraging beliefs….
@Phil: Hendry is NOT consensus.
show me anybody who recommends buying treasuries.
Mr Hendry is too dogmatic. He is not humble. He is too disparaging to other views. He makes could telly. He needs to see a trading shrink.
GreenAB,
I recommended buying treasuries the day they bottomed. David Rosenberg is also very positive about treasuries.
Simon,
I agree. He seems very distraught. My guess is his fund has been ripped over the last few months as he stuck to his guns on the short side.
I agree. He seems very distraught. My guess is his fund has been ripped over the last few months as he stuck to his guns on the short side
Hendry is a good fundie, but a horrible technician.
@TPC: the point made by Phil was, that Hendry is consensus.
by “anybody” i meant the hoards of analysts showing up everyday on business television.
take their voices or any survey you will find government bonds as THE asset class to avoid.
Rosenberg is contrarian, and your voice is (sorry) not publicly important (yet).