Comments on: MYTHS & REALITIES http://pragcap.com/myths-realities Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:06:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Skateman http://pragcap.com/myths-realities/comment-page-1#comment-8479 Skateman Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:49:53 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=12193#comment-8479 I've seen a progression with Rosenberg's thinking over the past few months. First, I think the fact that he now works in Canada has biased him to be more bullish on commodities than called for given his general deflation theme. This bias, then, and perhaps how much the stock market has surprised him on the upside since March has led him to turn bullish on gold. Now the gold bug combined with his right-wing political orthodoxy has begun to go to his head and he seems to believe that a couple of unions thinking about striking could somehow spur national inflation, which is ridiculous considering how small the union presence is in this country compared to the 1970s as well as likely Republican gains in 2010. I also think his point that gold should rise because it's such a small percentage of central bank holdings is nonsense. I notice the central banks don't hold much art or antique cars either - two other assets that don't pay a dime of income and whose valuations are thus completely subject to whims of speculators. Finally, Rosenberg is a full-on believer when it comes to China (a necessity if you're bullish on commodities). I think he'd be well served to parse the Chinese economic data as fully as he does the U.S. data. I’ve seen a progression with Rosenberg’s thinking over the past few months. First, I think the fact that he now works in Canada has biased him to be more bullish on commodities than called for given his general deflation theme. This bias, then, and perhaps how much the stock market has surprised him on the upside since March has led him to turn bullish on gold. Now the gold bug combined with his right-wing political orthodoxy has begun to go to his head and he seems to believe that a couple of unions thinking about striking could somehow spur national inflation, which is ridiculous considering how small the union presence is in this country compared to the 1970s as well as likely Republican gains in 2010.

I also think his point that gold should rise because it’s such a small percentage of central bank holdings is nonsense. I notice the central banks don’t hold much art or antique cars either – two other assets that don’t pay a dime of income and whose valuations are thus completely subject to whims of speculators.

Finally, Rosenberg is a full-on believer when it comes to China (a necessity if you’re bullish on commodities). I think he’d be well served to parse the Chinese economic data as fully as he does the U.S. data.

]]> By: Rob http://pragcap.com/myths-realities/comment-page-1#comment-8471 Rob Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:59:18 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=12193#comment-8471 TPC, I have only followed David Rosenberg since he left Wall Street this year. What was David's advice in 1997-2000, 2002-2007, 2008-2009? Was he early on his calls? My take from what others say is that one would have missed the big declines in equities but also missed the big advances. Once can look back at 1999 and say it was a lost decade, but there was lots of money to be made in equities if you bought when stocks were only mildly overvalued, stopped buying when valuations became excessive and and sold when everyone was convinced it would be different this time. TPC,

I have only followed David Rosenberg since he left Wall Street this year.

What was David’s advice in 1997-2000, 2002-2007, 2008-2009? Was he early on his calls? My take from what others say is that one would have missed the big declines in equities but also missed the big advances.

Once can look back at 1999 and say it was a lost decade, but there was lots of money to be made in equities if you bought when stocks were only mildly overvalued, stopped buying when valuations became excessive and and sold when everyone was convinced it would be different this time.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/myths-realities/comment-page-1#comment-8469 TPC Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:33:29 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=12193#comment-8469 Reality: following David's advice would have been good for your portfolio over the last decade. Reality: following David’s advice would have been good for your portfolio over the last decade.

]]> By: Eric http://pragcap.com/myths-realities/comment-page-1#comment-8467 Eric Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:30:37 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=12193#comment-8467 Myth: following David's advice would have been good for your portfolio in 2009. Myth: following David’s advice would have been good for your portfolio in 2009.

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