NON-FARM PAYROLLS -11K, UNEMPLOYMENT 10%, STOCKS RALLY
This looks like an incredibly bullish report at first glance. No, you’re not reading that incorrectly. The U.S. economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November and unemployment fell to 10%.
Update 1 – For the first time in years the dollar is rising with stocks as traders anticipate higher interest rates. It will be very interesting to see if the equity markets can hang onto gains as the rate hike outlook will almost certainly come into play earlier than most expect, based on today’s report….From Econoday:
Traders did not need their second cup of coffee this morning as they were jolted by a sharply better than expected jobs report for November. Nonfarm payroll employment in November edged down only 11,000, following a revised decline of 111,000 in October and a revised decrease of 139,000 in September. As suggested by recently lower initial jobless claims, the November contraction in payroll employment was far better than the market forecast for a 100,000 decrease. Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care.
From the household survey, the unemployment rate fell back to 10.0 percent from 10.2 percent in October. The consensus had projected no change at 10.2 percent.
Wage inflation eased as average hourly earnings in November edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent boost the prior month. The market had forecast a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek points to pending improvement in hiring as the workweek rose to 33.2 hours in November from 33.0 hours in October and topping the consensus forecast for 33.1 hours. Employers typically boost the workweek before adding to their workforce during recovery.
Today’s report is good news for workers and employers alike. And even retailers could benefit if confidence is boosted and consumer decide to spend a bit more. Equity futures surged on the news while Treasury rates firmed.
The full report is here. More to come….
TPC,
Market have been viewing bad news as a sign that rates would remain low. So, should we view this good news as a sign that rates will rise?
Well, it certainly looks like we’ll see job growth in Q1 as I expected. The question mark now is whether we will see higher rates….
“Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care.” This is a key statement after Holidays those low-pay temp jobs will vanish.
For those still unemployed, here’s a way to maintain your luxury lifestyle:
http://bit.ly/5K4TIZ
(satire)
I’m confused. I realize it’s a small number of jobs lost compared to other months. But how is it that the unemployment number fell to 10% following a loss of 11,000 jobs?
The decrease in the unemployment rate to 10.0% is likely due to seasonal adjustment.
| | |
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data | Oct.-
Category |_________________|__________________________| Nov.
| | | | | | change
| II | III | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. |
| 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Civilian labor force ….| 154,912| 154,362| 154,006| 153,975| 153,877| -98
Employment …………| 140,591| 139,518| 138,864| 138,275| 138,502| 227
Unemployment ……….| 14,321| 14,844| 15,142| 15,700| 15,375| -325
Not in labor force ……| 80,547| 81,730| 82,316| 82,575| 82,866| 291
|________|________|________|________|________|________
What Dmitro’s stats are saying, the denominator shrank faster than the numerator as people stopped “looking” for work according to the BLS methodology. Are they still unemployed? Yes. They just don’t count anymore.
However, this was the best report we have seen on a number of labor statistics in quite sometime.
Thanks for the reply guys.
Only the Pump and Dump crowd would call this report ” Incredibly Bullish”
TPC– post the complete BLS data–in the special reports section so all can see the breakdown by industry.
Private Economist have U-6 (the number that counts everyone) at 17%+
The question is–
Will your Government/Administration Lie ,Lie, Lie to YOU?
No-Way–Never Happen–right
I heard BRock O say Today–
He would always tell the Truth to the American Worker.
Can I get a CDC on that!
Let’s keep things in perspective. Any regular reader knows I have been correctly neutral on the market for a month so no I have nothing to dump after a pump.
And yes, the number is superb compared to expectations. Read my piece on why this is bad news for markets….I am not the bull you make me out to be…