Comments on: NON-FARM PAYROLLS PLUMMET, GOLDMAN SACHS WINS AGAIN

By: Henry

Henry — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:28:29 +0000

I am guessing if we closed under 1020, then it will be more pressure on the down turn.
I am really curious on how GS get the number pretty close. One reason I ask about the expectation for next quarter is because they failed miserably on this NFP numbers.
From the other post.
“That’s because at -263,000 on nonfarm payrolls, instead of the -175,000 print that was widely expected, we actually saw sequential deterioration for the first time since May as the August decline was -201,000 (though revised from -216,000; July was revised lower to -304,000 from -276,000)”

By: jt26

jt26 — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:31:33 +0000

GS may be short knowing that there could be a lot of selling pressure due to all the prop trading wanting to lock-in their bonus’s for the year after such big gains. That’s why they so urgently paid back their TARP. They’ll probably engineer a nice 15% correction to the end of November, and get a nice little bonus on THEIR bonus.

By: John

John — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:57:30 +0000

My guess is there will be another 2% up day soon.

By: TPC

TPC — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:45:36 +0000

Yesterday was a brutal day no matter how you dice it. What’s still up for debate is why we were up 2% on Monday….I’d love an answer to that one….

By: Robert in Chicago

Robert in Chicago — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:41:05 +0000

Nice catch over at ZH:

Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

The usual suspects [ZH: emphasis ours] did a great job at managing the market expectation yesterday, which is why we dipped ahead of the number, and shorts took profit following the release. Congress’s Finance Committee get the numbers at 2PM the day prior, why shouldn’t the right institutional traders get them too? Obviously this softened the blow delivered by the news.

By: TPC

TPC — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:38:25 +0000

Henry,

I’ll have a formal earnings report analysis out next week. I haven’t finished crunching the numbers yet….

By: Henry

Henry — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:26:54 +0000

TPC, what do you think of the analysts estimate for 3rd quarter? any chance for better than estimate earning still? It seems the expectation is gradually moving up.

By: James

James — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:16:39 +0000

Factory orders also fell…the markets aren’t reacting too much to the news. It seems there are dip buyers and short covering. I heard from TA people that there has to be a gap filled to 1015 and then we go back up a few %’s.