OIL PRICES AND INFLATION
27 May 2009 by TPC
1 Comment
The great debate in investment circles continues to be the inflation story. We’ve seen huge hedge funds moving into reflation trades (Paulson) while others are still rumored to be playing the deflation card (Hayman Advisor and Bridgwater are notable). A key component to the inflation trade will clearly be raw material prices – the most influential of which is oil. I’ve attached a great chart detailing potential CPI scenarios based on oil prices:
Chart courtesy of JP Morgan.
More on this topic
(What's this?)
Inflation Hedging: Four Ways To Protect Your Investment Portfolio
(Investment U, 5/28/09)
Guest Post: We Can’t Inflate Our Way Out of the Debt Crisis … So What CAN We Do?
(naked capitalism, 3/12/10)
Inflation, stagflation or deflation?
(Emerging Index, 5/10/09)
Troubles Brewing in Africa's Largest Oil Producer
(When Giants Fall, 3/10/10)



Best I can tell, the funds you mention have some positions betting on deflation and others on inflation. Paulson's even said his gold position is a hedge.