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OIL PRICES AND INFLATION

27 May 2009 by Cullen Roche 1 Comment

The great debate in investment circles continues to be the inflation story.   We’ve seen huge hedge funds moving into reflation trades (Paulson) while others are still rumored to be playing the deflation card (Hayman Advisor and Bridgwater are notable).   A key component to the inflation trade will clearly be raw material prices – the most influential of which is oil.  I’ve attached a great chart detailing potential CPI scenarios based on oil prices:

cpiwtiClick for larger image

Chart courtesy of JP Morgan.

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • tdog

    Best I can tell, the funds you mention have some positions betting on deflation and others on inflation. Paulson's even said his gold position is a hedge.

    05/27/2009 at 7:40 AM