No, that headline is not a typo. This interesting fact comes to us courtesy of The Global Macro Investor:
“Oil prices are always a precursor to recessions. We hit the magic 100% YoY rise in November 2009 and went on to hit the third highest YoY% rise in the history of oil markets…
“The magic 100% level in the YoY change in oil gives us a 100% chance of a recession in the succeeding twelve months. This indicator suggests that ISM will fall to 40, or even 35, in the coming months before recovering…”
Source: GMI
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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