bubble

This Might be a Stock Bubble, but Valuation Metrics Won’t Help you Understand that

There’s a lot of chatter these days about extended “valuations” and the “bubble” in the stock market.  For instance, I was reading this piece on MarketWatch by Brett Arends which states that we’re now in the “third biggest stock bubble in US history”.  Arends goes on to cite Andrew Smithers of Smithers & Co. and his analysis showing that the…

Read More→

myth

Debunking Some Common Investment Myths

I’m going to need a shower after this week because I really whored myself out to the financial news media for the book.  I continued the media parade on Fox Business yesterday where I talked with David Asman and Liz Claman about some common investment myths.  These segments are always so short, but here are the key points I was…

Read More→

Macro10

“Are you bullish or bearish?”

Obviously I have my feelings on the attractiveness of the different stock markets. But in the grand scheme of things, how I think about being bullish or bearish has a lot to do with my personal time frame. That’s why it’s one of those questions that is impossible to answer without knowing a ton of information about the individual that’s asking.

commodities

Real Asset Strategies: Timing Isn’t Everything, but…

Real assets are coming off of a horrendous year relative to diversified stocks. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to stay low indefinitely. So why in the world should anyone own real assets now?

podcast

Podcast Appearance With Michael Covel

I joined Michael Covel on his awesome Podcast this week.  I’m usually listening to other people on his podcast while I workout so it was weird being the guest.  But this was a really fun interview.  The podcast format is so much better than the standard media interview which is brief and doesn’t allow for such an open exchange.  We…

Read More→

bull

Richard Bernstein: 5 Signs This Rally is Still Hated (Which is Bullish)

The most hated bull market in history is set to continue according to Richard Bernstein of RBA.  He offers up 5 signs as evidence that this continues to be a market that will climb the wall of worry: “Investors never fully embraced the bull market and remain very uncertain despite that the bull market is more than five years old….

Read More→

blah_blah

Yahoo Finance Appearance: Why the Big Picture Matters More than Ever

I was on Yahoo Finance yesterday with Michael Santoli discussing the release of my new book and in the interview he asked me about some of the key points I make: Most importantly, the macro picture matters more than it ever has.  The world is more interconnected and intertwined than it’s ever been.  Understanding what happens at the local level doesn’t…

Read More→

strategy2

How to Never Lose an Inflation Debate

I liked this line by Paul Krugman in a recent story referring to how the inflation story is like a game of musical chairs: “So it’s always the 70s, if not Weimar, and if the numbers say otherwise, they must be cooked.” That’s basically right.  But just in case you’re having any trouble winning inflation debates lately you might want…

Read More→

binoculars

Investment Plans Are Always Forecasts

I don’t often disagree with the very smart Carl Richards, but I did take issue with a piece that was sent to me titled “investment plans and forecasts don’t mix”.  Carl says it’s silly to construct a forecast of any type or listen to anyone who makes forecasts.  Now, I think it’s important to be very clear about this point…

Read More→

gas

The Diminishing Returns of Fuel Efficiency

As vehicles become more fuel efficient, the savings one obtains by further improving the mileage decline substantially. This does not bode well for the future of alternative fuel automobiles.

buffett

Answering Some Warren Buffett Questions…

Business Insider was kind enough to publish an excerpt of my new book yesterday and it prompted some questions via email and the forum. The article is myth #1 in the investment myths chapter of the book and discusses how hard it is to replicate what Warren Buffett has built.  In essence, I argue that Buffett actually runs a multi-strategy…

Read More→

im

What A Half Ironman Taught me About Investing

I did the Vineman Half Ironman this past weekend in northern California.   It’s a beautiful race that takes you through the vineyards outside Napa during a 1.2 mile swim, 56 mile bike and 13.1 mile run.  I’d never performed in a long distance event of any kind and couldn’t bike 10 miles or run 5 miles a year ago…

Read More→