Are We Witnessing a Melt-Up In Long-Term Bonds?

Since the financial crisis, investors are constantly on edge that we’ll see another melt-down in the stock market. On the other hand, there are investors such as Jeremy Grantham of GMO, that have been predicting the opposite — a melt-up in stocks before we see an eventual crash as investors notoriously take things too far.

Quick Thoughts on the Fed Statement

Not much to say here following the latest Fed statement. They dropped “considerable time” and added that they will remain “patient”. I don’t even know what that means, but the parsing of words here is a bit overdone in my opinion. The key point at present is not in the…

Chart of the Day: Hello Deflation?

I mentioned earlier this week that the inflation threat is totally off the table in the near-term thanks to the collapse in oil prices.  And we now have a great idea of just how much the decline in oil prices is impacting prices. The PriceStats Daily Developed Markets Index follows prices…

Oaktree’s Marks on Russia: If you put your $ in the bank will you get it back?

Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management talks about Russia and how the rule of law undermines the Russian economy.

History is an Outline, not a Blueprint of the Future

One of the most important points I stress in my book is the importance of thinking about market environments as their own unique set of circumstances. In the world of finance and economics it’s always convenient to look at the past and draw conclusions about the future. We’re seeing this…

Lessons Learned in 2014

In 2014, US stocks forged ahead, international developed and emerging-market stocks lagged, bonds did better than expected, and the IRS took a bigger bite. Here are some lessons for US investors to carry forward into 2015.

Can a Central Bank Always Create Inflation?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard got a Paul Krugman lashing over the weekend thanks to some comments about the power of Central Banks when the economy is stuck at the zero lower bound.  Evans-Pritchard had argued that increasing the money supply is still a relevant strategy for increasing inflation and Paul Krugman didn’t…

A Lesson in Market Crashes

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. So easy to say but much harder to pull off in real-time.