Why Does the Cycle of Fear and Greed Persist?

“Truth be told, if you keep buying high and selling low, you should stay out of the stock market, because you’re losing money. Your primary goal as an investor should be not to lose money.” – Carl Richards


Pragmatic Capitalism – First Reviews…

Some of you may already know this, but my first book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” is set to publish in July. We’re still in the late stages of production, but some of the first reviews are trickling in. This one is from Publisher’s Weekly:


Three Things I Think I Think

I’m pretty sure I think all of these things. Let me know what you think you think about the things I think I think.


How well do Economists Predict Turning Points?

Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens.


Market Monetarism – Monetary Base Overdrive

Market monetarists have had some problems with [the Bank of England paper on bank money creation], which is understandable given their emphasis on monetary aggregates rather than interest rates as the appropriate framing for monetary policy and theory.


Robo Advisors – Awakening a Giant for the Benefit of All

A lot of people have started asking me about some of these Robo Advisor services like WealthFront and Betterment in recent months. I’ve started digging into the businesses in more detail, but while I am in the process, I did want to pass on some pretty cool news from Vanguard – they’re getting into the game also.


Don’t bet on the Treasury Bond Rally to Continue

Treasuries rallied sharply last week, mostly on the back of the sell-off in equities as well as in response to the Fed’s seeming backpedaling on the timing of rate hikes.


The Alarm Clock Goes Off on Dream Stocks

Investors have recently woken up to the reality of overpriced US momentum stocks in technology and biotech. But a knee-jerk shift toward defensive sectors isn’t the answer.


Not Everyone in Finance has Their Head Buried in the Sand….

Paul Krugman asks an interesting question this morning:


Revisiting Price Compression

Price compression is when market participants price in many years worth of future performance into the current price. They are, in effect, buying today with the expectation that future earnings will justify current prices.

diverging diverge

A Lesson in Portfolio Correlations

“It seems like the higher mathematics with more false precision should help you but it doesn’t. They teach that in business schools because, well, they’ve got to do something.” – Charlie Munger


Investors Want More…Investment

why aren’t corporations actually pouring more money into their own firms as opposed to just handing it back to shareholders?