The Importance of Learning to be Wrong

A lot of people are talking about this segment on CNBC yesterday in which Steve Liesman tells Rick Santelli that he couldn’t have possibly been more wrong about his predictions over the last 5 years (he’s been worried about inflation, “money printing”, rising interest rates, etc).  I hate to pile on, but I do think there’s an important lesson in…

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Q&A Answers Part 2

Here’s part 2 of the Q&A.  I hope it’s helpful. Tom Brown says: What’s going on here?: OK, seriously though, what do you make of this? http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/07/its-all-but-official-there-is-no-2.html CR:  Looks like an old Lone Ranger cartoon about hard work.  Don’t ask me to explain the message entirely because I have no idea. I am not so certain about that.  The implication seems to…

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Q&A Part 1

There were a lot of questions from the Q&A so I am going to break this up in two posts.  I hope it’s helpful. Geoff says: Lebron to Cavs? CR:  He made the right choice for his family and himself.  Seems like the right move from a personal perspective. Filippos says: 1) Do you feel that the U.S. economy will accelerate in…

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Q&A – Ask me Anything

Go ahead – ask me anything….I dare you.


Universal Lessons From Every Investment Discipline

Just as there are no perfect portfolios, there are no perfect investment philosophies either. Nothing works all the time and every strategy its flaws. Even the most successful investors will underperform the overall market depending on the environment. Yet each form of investing has lessons that can be used regardless of how you choose to invest.


Rail Traffic and Jobless Claims Point to Continued Economic Healing

Rail traffic and jobless claims continued to improve in the latest week pointing to positive signs for the economy.  These are two of the better macro indicators we see with some regularity so while this obviously doesn’t mean that everything is improving, it certainly doesn’t look to be consistent with broad economic deterioration.  In fact, the strength in the last…

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The Interest Rate Contradiction

it’s a contradiction to be in favor of higher interest rates and a lower budget deficit and national debt.


Four Questions….

In which I ramble on in an interview with the always awesome Josh Brown….


Brazil’s Soccer Collapse and Economic Waste….

Desordem e regresso.


3 Reasons Today’s Environment is not like the 1970′s

John Templeton once said that the four most dangerous words in investing are “it’s different this time”.  But I have to disagree with this statement to some degree because I think each economic cycle is, to SOME degree, its own cycle and has elements that are always different from past cycles.  And one common refrain today is how we might…

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Exaggerating the Dollar’s Demise

The headline of the Financial Times today reads “Paris rails against the dollar’s dominance.” It could have been written nearly any time in the past half century. After all it was a former French President Giscard d’Estaing, who as finance minister in the 1960s, complained about the “exorbitant privilege” that the US drew from the role of the dollar (the phrase is often attributed to Charles De Gaulle).


7 Market Myths that make Investors Poorer

What you think you know about money can hurt you