PIMCO’s Picks & Pans
Via Bill Gross’s monthly letter – some picks and pans for the new normal:
But if a 2% or lower real growth forecast holds for most of the developed world over the foreseeable future, then it is clear that there will be investment consequences. Shown below, as recently published in a TIME Magazine article by Rana Foroohar, is a PIMCO list of future Picks and Pans based upon these ongoing structural changes:
Picks
- Commodities like Oil and Gold
- U.S. Inflation-Protected Bonds
- High-Quality Municipal Bonds
- Non-Dollar Emerging-Market Stocks
Pans
- Long-Dated Developed-Country Bonds in the U.S., U.K. and Germany
- High-Yield Bonds
- Financial Stocks of Banks and Insurance Companies
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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3 Comments
His four picks are all the same trade.
” [...] But if a 2% or lower real growth forecast holds for most of the developed world over the foreseeable future [...] ”
2% seems to be rather optimistic. have a look here
http://www.denkwerkzukunft.de/index.php/aktivitaeten/index/Wachstumstrends
and check the detail pages (those are also in english language). 2%? These days are long gone.
In other words, Buy:
Long-Dated Developed-Country Bonds in the U.S., U.K. and Germany, High-Yield Bonds, Financial Stocks of Banks and Insurance Companies
and Sell:
Commodities like Oil and Gold, U.S. Inflation-Protected Bonds, High-Quality Municipal Bonds, and Non-Dollar Emerging-Market Stocks
Thanks Bill!