Quick Thoughts on the Jobs Report

Just a brief overview of thoughts on the big jobs report from this morning:

  • Non-farm payrolls came in at 169K vs expectations of 175K.
  • June and July were revised lower by a total of 74K.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%, but was largely due to reduced labor force participation.
  • Government jobs were up 17K.
  • Private payrolls rose 152K.
  • Wage growth was up 0.2%.
  • We’ve averaged 154K jobs since 2010.  Today’s report was slightly better than average.

Overall, I’d say this report was more of the same.  You’ll read the same headlines we’ve seen for years about how weak the report was when the reality is that we’ve averaged 95K monthly job gains since 1990 so 169K is really nothing to get too worked up over.  We’re not going backwards and that’s good news even if the details of the forward progress don’t look ideal.

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Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services. He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance and Understanding the Modern Monetary System.

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Comments

  1. “You’ll read the same headlines we’ve seen for years about how weak the report was when the reality is that we’ve averaged 95K monthly job gains since 1990 so 169K is really nothing to get too worked up over. We’re not going backwards and that’s good news even if the details of the forward progress don’t look ideal.”

    – is it appropriate to use a long term job growth average (95k) as a comparison here? Seems a bit like comparing apples and bowling balls. At the very least that comparison should bring up stock vs flow concerns, no?

  2. You could use the avg since 2010: 154K
    Or 2011: 179K
    Or 2012: 182K

    This month’s report was basically in-line with the average job gains from recent years….

  3. $2.50 & a packet of twizzlers, per job.

    Thats a lot of twizzlers.

    By the way your question makes less sense than my answer.

  4. 63 percent.
    ‘Americans are participating in the workforce at the lowest level in 35 years, according to government data released Friday, as lackluster job growth fails to offset the droves of people who have given up looking for work.
    The grinding pace of recovery has hollowed out the workforce. Government data showed that only 63.2 percent of working-age Americans have a job or are looking for one, the lowest proportion since 1978. Nearly 90 million people are now considered out of the labor force, up 1.7 million from August 2012.’

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-169k-jobs-in-august-as-the-recovery-grinds-along/2013/09/06/696820dc-16ef-11e3-a2ec-b47e45e6f8ef_story.html

  5. Cullen,

    Your site is phenomenal, but the initial pop-up ad that was recently implemented is absolutely horrendous. It takes forever to “x” out of it and it takes up the entire screen. Perhaps it is the most lucrative ad you sell – if so, I can understand the economics. But if it is just like any other ad, would you consider removing?

    Thank you!

    Joe

  6. And how many are part time?

    90%+ so far the year.

    Burger flippers mostly.

    The land of the impending banana republic.