Rail Traffic Continues to Show Signs of Improvement
Despite cratering commodities and a weakening global economy domestic rail traffic continues to show signs of strength. Carloads were down -2.5% on a year over year basis, but intermodal jumped 5.2%. The 10 week moving average for intermodal is now at 4.2%, it’s highest rate since February. AAR has the details on this week’s data:
“The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed weekly rail traffic for the week ending June 16, 2012, with U.S. railroads originating 287,036 carloads, down 2.5 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 249,975 trailers and containers, up 5.2 percent compared with the same week last year.
Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, with petroleum products, up 50.3 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, up 22.6 percent, and coke, up 11.1 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included metallic ore, down 18.5 percent; nonmetallic minerals, down 15.2 percent, and iron and steel scrap, down 12.6 percent.
Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was down 3.3 percent compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was down 2 percent compared with the same week in 2011.
For the first 24 weeks of 2012, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 6,757,454 carloads, down 3 percent from the same point last year, and 5,550,105 trailers and containers, up 3.1 percent from last year.”
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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6 Comments
Is it possible weaker intermodal traffic via ships is not reflected in the data? Historically, how strong of an indicator is US intermodal rail traffic?
O’k well every other indicator is showing no improvement or turning worse.
The huge rise of passenger rail in the UK and rail freight in the US fits your picture of sovergin currencies operating withen a envoirment of high oil prices…..in Europe there is no good substitution – there is commercial failure.
Passengers journeys on the UK rail network
Post war peak Y1957 : 1,101 million (Suez crisis ?)
Y1982 : 630 million (beginnings of the oil glut depression)
Y1985 /86 : 686 million (oil glut proper)
Y2010 /11 : 1,354 million (oil / BTU shortage)
assets.dft.gov.uk/statistics/tables/tsgb0102.xls
And the return of the Tram
http://www.info4local.gov.uk/documents/publications/1972837
Cullen,
I mentioned that before, and it is worth mentioning again – why your chart starts from 3/08? It looks like you use this indicator as key leading to determine economy health. And yet, the chart start from rather irrelevant time point? Why not somewhere in 2007 or 2006, so we can see how it deteriorated from the healthy conditions back then? Even better it would be nice to combine these data, both in absolute form and in % growth, with ATA numbers, to understand total dynamics?
Regarding the chart, peaks and valleys of weekly prices from mid-2010 form a markedly descending channel. I’d peg the down slope somewhere between moderate and strong. This suggests positive momentum is waning at a commensurate pace. Is this not a concern?