Rail Traffic: Still Showing Signs of Softening

More of the same here.  Rail traffic is still expanding, but showing definite signs of sluggishness.  This week’s reading of 1.9% brought the 3 month average to 2.6% growth.  That’s certainly in-line with the growing, but very sluggish economy. Here’s more from the AAR:

“The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed weekly rail traffic for the week ending November 10, 2012, with U.S. railroads originating 283,414 carloads, down 5.4 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 249,531 trailers and containers, up 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year.

Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, with petroleum products, up 45.5 percent; farm products excluding grain, up 24 percent, and motor vehicles and equipment, up 13.6 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included metallic ores, down 20.9 percent; coal, down 15.5 percent, and grain, down 9.8 percent.

Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was down 5.7 percent compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was down 5.2 percent compared with the same week in 2011.

For the first 45 weeks of 2012, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,784,473 carloads, down 3 percent from the same point last year, and 10,694,270 trailers and containers, up 3.4 percent from last year.”



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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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  • http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com Manuel Blay

    Maybe this sluggishness accounts for the Transports having closed down on Nov 16 whereas the Industrials and S&P closed clearly up.

    And by closing down the Transports have just flashed a primary bear market signal under Dow Theory.

    So under Dow Theory we are officially in a primary bear market.

    Not a good omen for stocks.

    Here are the details of the bear signal and what to expect of it: