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RAIL TRAFFIC: THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, BUT STILL GROWING

21 October 2011 by Cullen Roche 4 Comments

Rail traffic posted mixed results this week with carloads showing flat originations and intermodal traffic posting 3% year over year gains.  Year to date carloads are up 1.7% which I believe is consistent with a growing but weak economy.  The good news is this data isn’t showing declines, however, we are not seeing a substantial moderation in growth.  AAR reports on this week’s results (via AAR):

“The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed results for weekly rail traffic, with U.S. railroads originating 303,363 carloads for the week ending Oct. 15, 2011, which is flat compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 244,389 trailers and containers, up 3 percent compared with the same week last year.

Eleven of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010, including: metallic ores, up 28.1 percent; metals and products, up 18 percent, and petroleum products, up 17.2 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included: grain, down 14.8 percent, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 9.5 percent.

Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 0.4 percent compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was down 0.2 percent compared with the same week in 2010.

For the first 41 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,935,013 carloads, up 1.7 percent from the same point last year, and 9,367,614 trailers and containers, up 5.3 percent from last year.”

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • Anonymous

    Very funny title. “Slowing and to grow simultaneously…”

    10/21/2011 at 11:33 AM
  • Mark

    Can’t find the link but, some report on diesel fuel and comments by the economist talked of recession levels for that index. Trains don’t tell the whole story

    10/21/2011 at 7:24 PM
    • Chet

      Mark, This might be what you are referring to.
      http://www.ceridianindex.com/

      10/22/2011 at 4:28 AM
      • Mark

        Thanks Chet, that’s the one. Ed Leamer, a former perma-bull,says “Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, warns that September’s PCI number is alarming. In the three month period since June, trucking activity has been declining at the annualized rate of 10 percent per year, a rate that is symptomatic of a recession.

        10/22/2011 at 11:43 AM