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RANDOM THOUGHTS BY TPC

6 August 2009 by Cullen Roche 2 Comments

1.  If you were short yesterday did you vomit all over yourself when the market went positive at 3:30PM after having been down 100 earlier in the session?

2.  Looks like John Chambers doesn’t think the economy is going to experience a v-shaped recovery (and we’re talking about the most optimistic guy that ever graced Wall Street)….

3.  Did anyone else see that BS move in AIG?  That’s another reason to stick to what you know.  If you can’t understand a company balance sheet you don’t buy it AND you certainly don’t short it….AIG suffered THREE different massive short squeezes yesterday in one session.

4.  Back to school sales are off to a weak start.  Who would have thought the consumers are weak?  Oh hell, give ‘em $4,500 so they can take out a new car loan….

5.  Tech was weak again yesterday.  Are we seeing the end of the recent beta trade?

6.  The banks ripped yesterday.  If you had told me banks stocks would be higher by 3.5% I would have told you the market would be up at least 1%.

7.  Breadth is usually the first crack in the foundation before a major sell-off.  Could the price discrepancy in tech, oil and bank stocks be the first signs that the market is rolling over?

8.  Has anyone else noticed the parabolic move in REITs?   Could pose a problem for the financials in the coming weeks as those sorts of moves are unsustainable….

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • teomax

    1. If you were short yesterday did you vomit all over yourself when the market went positive at 3:30PM after having been down 100 earlier in the session?

    tpc, some good explanation
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=9787

    08/06/2009 at 1:55 AM
  • Onlooker

    The REITs are indeed a puzzling phenomena. We all know the headwinds they face. They were sold down very hard from their all time highs, no doubt. But surely they weren’t sold down so far that they should be up almost 100% from their lows.

    I have no idea how to value them at this point, so I’ll stay away, short or long, unless we see another hard sell off in the future that would take IYR down into the 20s again. It doesn’t seem like this sector should make a low for the cycle before next year some time as there is plenty of trouble ahead.

    I’d particularly be interested in Realty Income (O) if it revisited the mid-teens. It’s a conservatively managed company with low debt and good cash flow, but downward pressure on rents should hurt it in the short term.

    08/06/2009 at 8:22 AM