Read of the Day: Mathematical Malpractice

It’s Friday so no wonk talk for you guys.  Besides, Georgetown is beginning their road to the national championship and you should be paying close attention.  That road happens to steamroll right through Syracuse today (for the third time this season.)  On that note, Bob Seawright has a nice post up about investing and the NCAA tournament.  He makes the colossal mistake of saying that Georgetown has no chance of winning, but I’ll forgive him.*

Read the full piece:

“The Wall Street Journal is promoting what it purports to be a “hot tip” for the upcoming NCAA basketball tournament.  According to theJournal’s Jim Chairusmi, second-ranked Duke (full disclosure: I’m a Duke alum) won’t win the national championship this season. Neither will No. 5 Georgetown, No. 6 Michigan or No. 7 Kansas. That’s because all four of these teams had one game this season where they got demolished, and that rarely happens to championship teams. As the Journal points out, only one team since 1994, the 2001-02 Maryland Terps, lost a game by more than 20 points and went on to win the title. Moreover, three of the five most recent NCAA champions went through the season without even losing a game by double digits — third-ranked Indiana and No. 4 Louisville fit that mold this season.  If this holds true again, that’s bad news for the Blue Devils, Hoyas, Wolverines and Jayhawks and potentially good news for the Hoosiers or the Cardinals.

Maybe you should fill out your NCAA bracket next week accordingly.  But then again, maybe not.”

* Technically, the WSJ makes this claim.  Sorry, Bob!

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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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Comments

  1. I like my Hoyas chances this year of going to at least the sweet sixteen, and even as far as final four! They will be a number 2 seed. Let’s Go Ho-yas!!

  2. As a fellow Duke alum, I agree. this analysis is rubbish. The field is as wide open this year as I have seen in years and years.