ROSENBERG: 7 INVESTMENT IDEAS FOR 2012

David Rosenberg is out with his investment strategy for 2012 and he’s recommending that investors approach the potential deflationary environment with a SIRP approach – safety and income at a reasonable price.  He offers 7 different ways to implement this strategy:

“Many investors increasingly want preservation of cash flow as well as preservation of capital. We concur and have consistently recommended a focus on S.I.R.P. — safety and income at a reasonable price, with a primary focus on stability and prudent risk-taking.

1. Focus on safe yield: High-quality corporates (non-cyclical, high cash reserves, minimal refinancing needs). Corporate balance sheets are in very good shape.

2. Equities: focus on reliable dividend growth/yield; preferred shares (“income” orientation).

3. Whether it be credit or equities,focus on companies with low debt/equity ratios and high liquid asset ratios – balance sheet quality is even more important than usual. Avoid highly leveraged companies.

4. Even hard assets that provide an income stream work well in a deflationary environment (ie, oil and gas royalties, REITs, etc…).

5. Focus on sectors or companies with these micro characteristics: low fixed costs, high variable cost, high barriers to entry/some sort of oligopolistic features, a relatively high level of demand inelasticity (utilities, staples, health care — these sectors are also unloved and under owned by institutional portfolio managers).

6. Alternative assets: allocate significant portion of asset mix to strategies that are not reliant on rising equity markets and where volatility can be used to advantage.

7. Precious metals: A hedge against the reflationary policies aimed at defusing deflationary risks— money printing, rolling currency depreciations, heightened trade frictions, and government procurement policies.”

Source: Gluskin Sheff

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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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